Will Bob Iger Leave His Disney Successor Out to Dry... Again? (And More)

Thoughts on Sony's new 'Kraven' trailer, Justin Baldoni's potential Streisand Effect mistake and Lionsgate's potentially huge (Michael Jackson-inflated) 2025.

In today’s slowly written throughout the day newsletter... 

Kraven the Hunter gets a second trailer. (free)
Lionsgate’s (unintentional?) “survive till 25” strategy (free)
Justin Baldoni forgets about the Streisand Effect (paywalled)
Bob Iger’s Fire Sale Escape Plan 2.0 (paywalled)

Kraven is almost certainly the “last dance” for Sony’s Spider-Man Universe. 

Sony must know that Venom ($854 million in 2018, including a now implausible $269 million from China) was an exception to the rule. Venom is a marquee character, which is why Sam Raimi was forced to include the “edgy” antagonist in Spider-Man 3. Furthermore, Tom Hardy’s bonkers performance – one of those “trying to win an Oscar and a Razzie at the same time” turns -- provided entertainment value for those disinterested in the I.P. It was just goofy and self-mocking enough to play as a skewed homage to pre-MCU superhero flicks while being a rare PG-13 all-quadrant franchise flick amid the likes of Halloween, A Star Is Born, The Grinch and Bohemian Rhapsody.  

Remember, just because Beauty and the Beast tops $1.2 billion doesn’t mean audiences give as much of a damn about Dumbo. That Sony ended up with a handful of these was partially because Morbius bombed not in July 2020 but in April 2022. By that time, Madame Web was in production, Kraven the Hunter was in the works, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($505 million in October of 2021 sans a penny from China) had banked off the surprise success of its predecessor by leaning into the tomfoolery. This brings us to J.C. Candor’s Kraven the Hunter, which was delayed amid the SAG-AFTRA strikes from last October to this Labor Day and now to this Christmas.  

It’s an aggressively run-of-the-mill sell, predicated on a 2010s notion that Marvel/D.C. movies were automatic events. We get conventional action, a “be a hero or be a villain like your father” arc and the notion that Kraven appearing in his comic book-accurate costume is “becoming a legend.” Aaron Taylor Johnson is no more of a “butts in seats” draw than Jared Leto (good luck with Tron: Ares). $5 says that 88% of the press tour will be taken up with (or SEO-aggregation dominated by) coy non-answers about whether he will become the next 007. The good news is that these periodic “Spider-Man movies without Spider-Man” flicks have gone from essentially the main event for Sony to just something they also do.  

Sony has had a rock-solid 2024 thanks to reasonably budgeted biggies like The Garfield Movie ($251 million on a $60 million budget), Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($400 million/$100 million) and It Ends with Us alongside holdover business from their Christmas 2023 miracle Anyone but Us ($225 million/$25 million), which earned $63 million of its $88 million domestic cume this year. Yes, they whiffed with The Book of Clarence and Harold and the Purple Crayon (while Fly Me to the Moon bombed hard enough to apparently scare Apple away from movie theaters), but that’s how a standard movie studio with a standard theatrical slate is supposed to work. The likely hits and the surprise sleepers more than make up for the bombs. 

I complained in 2014 that the media (and shareholders) obsessed about whether Amazing Spider-Man 2 was big enough ($705 million global) but not American Hustle grossing $250 million on a $40 million budget and 22 Jump Street becoming one of the biggest-ever comedy sequels ($331 million). There could be a change in how we talk about Sony and how Sony sees itself. Among other variables, the first window pay T.V. deal with Netflix allowed them to avoid the streaming war and instead sell the guns. Perhaps in 2024, a decade after they got hacked allegedly over their release of The Interview, they are again repositioning themselves from the home of Spider-Man to a movie studio that occasionally releases Spider-Man movies. 

Lionsgate is holding out for a hero several smooth criminals. 

Yes, Borderlands is one of the great box office bombs of the modern era. While Lionsgate sold off foreign pre-sales to cover around 60% of the reported $120 million budget, it’s still a $120 million movie (partially thanks to reshoots and revisions for a film that was primarily shot in 2021) that may not crack $20 million domestically and may struggle to pass $40 million worldwide. In terms of what it looked like at the onset versus what it turned out to be, well, it’s the 26th anniversary of The Avengers. Lionsgate has had an awful 2024 thus far, at least in terms of theatrical releases.  

Their first seven releases have earned a combined $139 million in North America, with just the two horror flicks (Blumhouse’s Imaginary with $45 million globally and The Strangers Chapter 1 with $48 million worldwide) qualifying as halfway decent hits. That’s not to say the films were terrible. I applaud them for opening the Indian action thriller Kill in 1,500 theaters over the July 4 weekend. Guy Ritchie’s Society of Ungentlemanly Warfare (which went straight-to-Prime in most overseas territories) was a delightful “antidote” to Civil War. Ordinary Angels is one of the best faith-based dramas since Heaven is For Real. 

However “promising” Borderlands may have seemed in mid-2020, a popular video game adaptation helmed by a post-House with a Clock in Its Walls Eli Roth and starring Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart and Jack Black, well, “Rain or shine, all is mine.” Simply put, the idea of a tentpole like Borderlands is to hold up the tent rather than erasing theatrical profits from the small-scale successes. 

 Is it time to panic over at the House that Jigsaw Built? Honestly, no. While little else on the schedule (The Crow, Flight Risk, Megapolis, etc.) can be logically expected to catch fire, it’s worth remembering that two of its most “surefire” 2024 releases ended up being delayed to 2025. Lionsgate was supposed to open the Ana De Armas-starring John Wick spin-off Ballerina this past June before sending it to June 6, 2025. Saw XI got moved from this September to September 25, 2025. 

Whether or not a Len Wiseman-directed John Wick spin-off (which allegedly takes place before John Wick: Chapter 4) can pull anywhere near the earnings of the last two John Wick sequels, the narrative offered up that it is being crafted with a level of “give a damn” associated with the quadrilogy. After the shockingly well-received Saw X, this 11th chapter (another prequel set between Saw and Saw III?) will have more “earned goodwill” and “benefit of the doubt” than any chapter since the original trilogy ended in 2005. 

That’s not even counting what could easily be their biggest “non-Twilight/Hunger Games” flick ever. While Universal is handling overseas distribution, Lionsgate is handling the stateside release of Antoine Fuqua’s Michael. That sure-to-be buzzy (and *much* discoursed) Michael Jackson biopic will open next year on Easter weekend (April 19). I’m not saying it’ll do Bohemian Rhapsody ($215 million domestic and $910 million worldwide in 2018) grosses. But, sure, the King of Pop *could* become the King of Biopics, and almost any other “milestone” for music-focused biopics or musically inclined melodramas is on the table.  

Like Sony, Lionsgate has positioned itself outside the carnage of the streaming war by being an A-level arms dealer. I’ve long argued that many of their theatrical releases (like, uh, Rock Dog) are merely about stocking up the library. Still, Universal can handle a Mortal Engines in a way that Lionsgate can’t so easily wave off a Borderlands. That said, next year could be another banger on par with 2023, with two potential I.P. biggies and a potential top-tier blockbuster. If Michael moonwalks to fortune and glory, Lionsgate might be able to finally afford that Divergent: Allegiant Part II Starz movie!