Box Office: 'Aquaman 2' Needs Christmas Miracle After Waterlogged $28M Weekend

'The Lost Kingdom' may earn less overall in North America than Jason Momoa's first 'Aquaman' grossed in its Fri-Tues holiday opening weekend

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is technically the winner at the pre-Christmas weekend box office, again showing why ranking is less important than money. Aquaman 2 nabbed just $28.1 million this weekend and will earn around $40 million in its domestic Fri-Mon debut. That compares to the $33 million earned by the first Aquaman on its first full day (including preview grosses) in December of 2018. By day five, as Christmas Day arrived on a Tuesday that year, that first well-received James Wan-directed underwater action fantasy had earned $105 million on its way to $335 million domestic. Even noting strong post-debut legs for movies big (Tomorrow Never Dies) and small (Mouse Hunt) opening around the holidays, it’s possible that this poorly reviewed and thus far indifferently received sequel may end up with around $105 million total.  

As for what happened, well, the reviews weren’t great, Warner Bros. Discovery prioritized Wonka and audiences no longer just show up for merely okay DC/Marvel superhero flicks. The online chatter about alleged behind-the-scenes melodrama, much of it patently false or irrelevant (spoilers: Amber Heard is still in much of the movie, there’s no Batman cameo and at no point does a baby get murdered), didn’t help. Ditto already announced plans last October for a full-on universe reboot. The COVID-era madness associated with DC Films (the return and relitigation of the SnyderVerse, Wonder Woman 1984 being used as HBO Max cannon fodder, Dwayne Johnson attempting a DCEU coup, Batgirl getting shelved, Ezra Miller’s offscreen meltdown, etc.) combined to make a sequel to a well-liked, $1.15 billion-earning hit look downright radioactive. Now its only (relative) hope is holiday legs. 

Aside from the last two Star Wars sequels, which opened with $220 million in 2017 and $173 million in 2019, pretty much every “big” December year-end tentpole release (Lord of the Rings, Tron: Legacy, I Am Legend, National Treasure 2, Rogue One, The Force Awakens, etc.) has legged out at least past 3x the respective Fri-Sun weekend. Star Trek: Nemesis tanked in 2002, earning $43 million from a $17 million debut, but even that franchise-ender (at the time) got pancaked by the actual 1600lb year-end gorilla that was The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers ($341 million from a $105 million Wed-Sun debut). This Jason Momoa/Patrick Wilson/ Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/Amber Heard sci-fi comic book fantasy is essentially this year’s Avatar/Star Wars/Lord of the Rings offering. Those films always do relatively well, right?  

Even Disney’s $170 million budgeted Tron: Legacy, which wasn’t exactly the next Avatar, earned $171 million domestically and $400 million worldwide in 2010 from a $44 million domestic debut. Heck, the Hobbit prequels that everyone allegedly hated earned a combined $2.94 billion worldwide. Eragon – if you thought Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon was a Star Wars rip-off, (start screaming like Donald Pleasence in Halloween II): You don’t know what a Star Wars rip-off is!!! -- earned 3.23x its $23 million debut in 2006 for a $75 million domestic cume. The whole “Christmas falls on day four/a Monday” thing makes this even more complicated. It’s unlikely that Aquaman 2 is going to play like A Night at the Museum ($250 million from a $42 million Fri-Mon debut in 2006) or Cast Away ($234 million/$40 million in 2000).  

Offhand, just using the Fri-Sun figure, a post-debut multiplier between 3.25x and 3.9x would give Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom a $98-$117 million domestic finish. That said, Christmas is a time for miracles, and the previous Aquaman did earn 4.65x its respective $72 million Fri-Sun debut to become the leggiest big-deal live-action DC/Marvel movie since Tim Burton’s Batman in 1989. Offhand, Peter Jackson’s King Kong was wrongly written off as a miss when it “only” opened with $66 million in its Wed-Sun debut before legging out to $218 million domestic (and $550 million worldwide) in 2005. However, that film had terrific reviews and solid buzz, still perhaps the only movie in history to get genuinely hurt by rave reviews (which had pundits and no-nothings arguing that it would be the second coming of Titanic). 

However, Aquaman 2 currently has a B from Cinemascore alongside a 36% rotten and 4.8/10 on Rotten Tomatoes. I liked the film, obviously compromised as it clearly is, as a visually spectacular and often inventive cliffhanger serial flick. But it’s nowhere near as good as the first Aquaman, and I won’t pretend that many of the criticisms aren’t relatively accurate. In terms of “Scott Mendelson versus his fellow critics,” this isn’t Speed Racer. As a conventional sequel, it offers no new marquee characters or actors, little in the way of a new story and obviously no value as part of the broader DC Films continuity. The only chance for longer legs amid the holiday season is that audiences want a PLF-worthy, mega-budget action-fantasy tentpole at year's end and this is the only one they’ve got. 

With a $120 million worldwide launch, including $30 million in China (compared to a $94 million debut for Aquaman in better times), the hope is that holiday business can push Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom to a global cume closer to $400 million (if Aquaman 2 earns $117 million domestic and then has the same 29/71 domestic/overseas split as its predecessor) than $300 million. Even that best-case result would merely make it slightly less embarrassing of a miss. Ironically, Wonka is continuing to overperform ($255 million global and counting) while The Color Purple opens on Christmas Day. As I’ve said since early 2014, Warner Bros. doesn’t need a full-on DC cinematic universe. Moreover, their attempts to make one have done far more harm than good for the company’s overall image. Who needs Superman when you have Barbie?