Box Office: 'Aquaman 2' Tops Friday (By Default) With Disappointing $13.7 Million

'Migration' is on path for an $18 million holiday launch while 'Wonka' is showing leg and 'The Iron Claw' is arguably overperforming

By default, the top movie at the domestic box office on Friday was Warner Bros. Discovery’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. The Jason Momoa/Patrick Wilson/Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/Amber Heard flick earned $13.7 million, including $4.5 million in previews. That compares to a $33 million opening day — including pre-release previews — for the first James Wan-directed undersea adventure. That flick, which had better reviews, stronger buzz and a much more friendly theatrical attitude toward Marvel and DC flicks, earned $72 million over its Fri-Sun weekend before legging out to $335 million domestic. Since Christmas Day falls on a Monday this year, as it did in 2017, almost everything in the marketplace will take a sharp dive on Sunday before hopefully roaring back to life on Monday. So, barring unexpected legs for the indifferently received sequel (a B from Cinemascore — on par with Batman v Superman and The Marvels), we can expect an over/under $30 million Fri-Sun and over/under $40 million Fri-Mon domestic debut.

Yes, it will now have the year-end blitz amid Christmas and New Year’s when most kids are out of school, and many adults are off work, thus allowing for two weeks of weekdays that play like weekends. That’s partially why the first Aquaman was so leggy, although a 4.65x multiplier was strong for a mega-movie even by holiday standards. But Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom isn’t exactly playing like an Avatar sequel or even a Hobbit prequel. Offhand, the “best” case scenario is probably Tron: Legacy, which opened in 2010 amid mixed reviews with $44 million over the Fri-Sun frame and earned $171 million domestically and $400 million worldwide on a $170 million budget. Or it legs out like The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker (2.9x from over/under $200 million opening weekends) and ends with around $115 million. I’m guessing Night at the Museum ($250 million in 2006 from a $42 million Fri-Mon debut) isn’t in play.

This is a sequel to a well-reviewed and well-liked predecessor that earned $1.148 billion worldwide on this same weekend five years ago. It features the same cast and the same director offering similar over-the-top fantasy action spectacle. Sure, the film’s likely over/under $50 million in China — compared to $298 million for Aquaman — isn’t a shock considering the sharp downturn for Hollywood tentpoles in the Middle Kingdom since 2020. But the DC Comics brand was (give or take Justice League) on a relative winning streak from 2017 to 2020 with Wonder Woman, Aquaman, Shazam, Joker and Birds of Prey, with Wonder Woman 1984 on a path to be among the biggest earners of 2020. It’s astonishing the extent to which Covid, HBO Max and shifting corporate mandates completely decimated the franchise. Moreover, the DC vs. Marvel battle ended with both franchises on the ropes, and it’s hard not to argue they took the entire film industry down with them.

Universal and Illumination’s Migration is their first original toon since Sing in 2016. The visually scrumptious and amusingly genre-skewing (it’s basically a kid-friendly, not-so-scary horror movie) family melodrama about ducks traveling south for the first time earned $5.8 million on Friday for a likely $13 million Fri-Sun/$18 million Fri-Mon debut. Sing, which debuted when audiences actually showed up for original animation — and had buzzy movie stars like Matthew McConaughey and Scarlett Johansson singing pop tunes — earned $20 million on Wednesday and Thursday amid a $55 million Wed-Sun launch. Original animation has struggled theatrically since 2018, so this much lower result isn’t a shock. Migration has decent reviews and an A from CinemaScore, while Universal’s last two Christmas toons were leggy as hell. Sing 2 earned $167 million after a $40 million Wed-Sun debut while Puss in Boots: The Last Wish earned $183 million after a $26 million Wed-Mon launch. Even with Wonka as kiddie competition, a long road past $100 million domestically wouldn’t shock me.

Sony’s Anyone But You earned $3.45 million on Friday, setting the stage for a likely $6.6 million Fri-Sun/$9 million Fri-Mon debut. That’s not great, but it’s not bad for an original, R-rated romantic comedy starring two “new” stars (Glen Powell and Sydney Sweeney). The loose riff on Much Ado About Nothing is inexplicably lousy, and that’s coming from a big Will Gluck fan. It’s the Wish of rom-coms. It features the raw elements associated with the genre and doesn’t bother to cook or season any of them, expecting the audience to be thankful for their mere presence. It’s also the kind of counterprogramming that legs out over the holiday and ends up with five or six times its respective opening weekend. A B+ from Cinemascore is promising, and lord knows the romantic comedy — and comedies in general — could use a win. But with Netflix flourishing in this space since 2018, Hollywood has to do better than Anyone But You.

We had not one but two big Indian tentpoles opening over the holiday. Tollywood’s Salaar: Part 1 (a sprawling, violent, politically-skewed actioner from K.F.G. director Prashanth Neel) and Bollywood’s Dunki (the third biggie headlined by mega-star Shah Rukh Khan in 2023 following Pathaan and Jawan) both opened in over/under 700 theaters each. However, the genre flick far out-earned the immigration dramedy. Saalaar: Part 1 earned around $3.7 million on Friday for a likely $6.42 million Fri-Sun/$8.12 million Fri-Mon debut in just 750 theaters. Dunki earned just $900,000 on Friday for a likely $2.74 million Fri-Sun/$3.91 million Fri-Mon gross, giving it $4.8 million since Thursday. Alas, poor SRK will have to settle for only having the two biggest-earning Bollywood movies ever both opening in a single year, instead of going 3-for-3 on that score. They added a combined $13 million to the Fri-Mon domestic box office, another example of how demographically specific event films are propping up the overall theatrical industry amid underperforming tentpoles.

A24’s The Iron Claw earned $2.5 million on Friday, setting the stage for a $5.5 million Fri-Sun/$8 million Fri-Mon debut. Sean Durkins’ family melodrama, a deep dive into the trials and tribulations of the Von Erich family, is such a “feel-bad movie of Christmas” that I kept waiting for Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Lion, Carol, Women Talking) to show up. That said, the Zac Efron-starring wrestling biopic/family melodrama is A) pretty damn good and B) exactly the kind of movie that some folks of certain political persuasions claim Hollywood never makes anyway (I mean that as a compliment, natch). So if it slightly overperforms this weekend — relative to its $16 million budget and expectations — that will be partially why. Finally, Searchlight’s All of Us Strangers earned $65,000 on Friday for a likely $150,000 Fri-Sun/$200,000 Fri-Mon debut. That would be a solid $50k per theater average for the acclaimed Andrew Scott/Paul Mescal romantic melodrama.

In holdover news, Wonka earned $6.5 million (-55%) on Friday for a likely $18.7 million Fri-Sun (-52%)/$27.3 million Fri-Mon weekend. That will give the $125 million-budgeted, Paul King-directed, Timothee Chalemet-starring prequel $85 million domestic after 11 days. In terms of holds, that’s on par with Jumanji: The Next Level (-55% after a $59 million debut) but the Jumanji threequel was up against a Star Wars movie. Nonetheless, there’s little reason to presume that the kid-friendly musical fantasy won’t leg out over the rest of the holiday season and into mid-January. If you wondered out loud why Wonka was being treated as a hit while The Marvels was being declared a bomb, well, Wonka will pass the lifetime domestic and worldwide totals of The Marvels on around half the budget by Monday or soon after. Oh, and The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes will have $154 million domestic by Monday. Sometimes it’s not a conspiracy, sometimes it’s just math.

GKids’ The Boy and the Heron will earn around $3.85 million over the Fri-Mon frame to bring its total to a whopping $31 million domestic. Toho International’s Godzilla Minus One will earn another $3.8 million to pass $41 million domestic. Poor Things expanded to 800 theaters on Friday, earning $1 million for a likely $2.46 million (+92%) Fri-Sun/$3.6 million Fri-Mon gross. That will give the hilarious Emma Stone/Mark Ruffalo comic fantasy a $6.53 million domestic cume. The Favourite had $11 million by the end of Christmas weekend 2017, but it had been in limited release for four previous weekends instead of two. MGM Amazon’s American Fiction, another terrific major studio comedy in the Oscar race, expanded to 40 theaters and earned $210,000 on Friday. That sets the stage for a $520,000 Fri-Sun/$770,000 Fri-Mon gross. That will give Cord Jefferson’s Jeffrey Wright-starring flick a $19,150 per-theater average and $1.092 million cume as the Orion/MRC/T-Street production slowly expands amid the awards season.