The Box Office Is Suffering From a Grim Replay of Summer 2014 and Summer 2016

Hollywood is coping with major tentpoles getting delayed *and* mostly once-were-special franchises holding down the fort (with a "nobody goes to theaters for non-event movies anymore" bonus)

Photo by Tyler Callahan on Unsplash

Even with Will Smith’s affirmed bankability (when in a franchise or IP play) and the positive goodwill from its predecessor, the industry is on pins and needles, wondering if the well-reviewed Bad Boys: Ride or Die will be the latest summer biggie to underwhelm. Tracking has been over/under $55 million, yet Sony has aggressively played down expectations, arguing for a $30 million-plus launch. Perhaps they are just underselling the demand, as all studios do, so they can spin an as-expected launch as an overperformance. Maybe they are concerned about the underwhelming debuts for Furiosa and The Fall Guy. The so-called tentpoles are greeted not with presumptions of glory but with a “Please don’t bomb!” attitude.  

Meanwhile, this trouble comes amid a painfully barren tentpole slate. You’re right if this seems like the worst possible versions of summer 2014 and 2016, without the saving grace of “new” blockbusters or an audience willing to see studio programmers. Unless Hollywood takes the time and money, including a few years of short-term loss for long-term gain, to rehabilitate its star system and launch new franchises based on newer IP, this summer won’t just be a grim fluke but a portal into the future.