Box Office: ‘Jurassic World Rebirth’ Drops 17% on Thursday as ‘F1’ Tops $200M Worldwide

The dino sequel could gross over $140 million domestically by Sunday, as the racing melodrama establishes itself as this summer's event flick for audiences who don’t just want reheated leftovers.

Universal and Amblin’s Jurassic World: Rebirth earned another $25.3 million on day two, dropping just 17% from its $30.5 million opening day. Yes, the Gareth Edwards-directed and David Koepp-penned dino sequel didn’t have a day-one gross supplemented by advance-day previews (showings started at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday), but that’s still a solid hold. The various comparisons surrounding the Independence Day holiday are… not an exact science due to the various Transformers, Spider-Man, Terminator and Will Smith-specific blockbusters that opened on a Tuesday or Wednesday and/or had the actual July 4 holiday (more often than not) falling on a Wednesday or Thursday as opposed to a Friday.

However, just offhand, Despicable Me 4 dropped 25% from its $27 million opening day despite July 4 falling on its second day of release. And looking at years where the holiday fell on a Friday, 1997’s Men in Black dropped 25% from its (previews-included) $18.9 million opening day, 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines fell 27% from its (also previews-included) $16.5 million Wednesday, and 2008’s Hancock dropped 30% from its $24.2 million previews+Wednesday gross. Heck, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Transformers: The Last Knight (the ones that had conventional Wed-Sun debuts) dropped around 50% from their respective preview-enhanced Wednesday opening days.

There’s no sign yet of frontloading, and (thus far) that B CinemaScore grade seems to be partially about the more obsessive fans being nitpickier than casual moviegoers. Once again, Jurassic movies have always thrived on walk-up business from non-obsessives who show up for the series without making it a defining part of their (online or offline) personality. Unless we get actual Wed-Thurs frontloading heading into the Fri-Sun weekend, we could have a five-day domestic debut on par with the $148 million Fri-Sun and $145 million Fri-Sun opening weekends of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in 2018 and Jurassic World Dominion in 2022. Again, that qualifies as a “franchise consistency” victory.

It earned $9.9 million on its opening day in China, which (noting mixed-at-best word of mouth) suggests a ≈ $45 million Wed-Sun launch. 2015’s Jurassic World earned $227 million in China (out of $1.67 billion globally), while 2018’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom nabbed $261 million (out of $1.31 billion). 2022’s Jurassic World Dominion dived, as did almost every major Hollywood franchise over the last four years, compared to the 2010s. For example, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is now at $60 million, above Dead Reckoning’s $49 million total but below Ghost Protocol ($101 million in 2011), Rogue Nation ($136 million in 2015), and Fallout ($181 million in 2018).

Dominion earned $159 million toward $1 billion worldwide and remains the fourth biggest 2020s Hollywood grosser behind Avatar: The Way of Water ($246 million), F9 ($215 million, down from $390 million for Furious 7 and Fate of the Furious) and Godzilla vs. Kong ($188 million). Even if Jurassic World Rebirth ends up closer to $75 million than $175 million, that’s still a lot more than most of its competition — save for presumably Zoolander 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash — can expect. Comparatively speaking, F1 currently stands at $13.2 million, while How to Train Your Dragon has just surpassed $31 million (out of around $475 million).

Speaking of F1, the buzzy and acclaimed Apple title has just passed $200 million worldwide in its first week of global release. That includes $6.065 million on Thursday (+26% from Wednesday), bringing the domestic total to $83.5 million after one week in North American theaters. Even noting the holiday advantages, the Brad Pitt-starring Formula One racing melodrama has earned a robust 1.46x multiplier from its $57 million Fri-Sun domestic debut. The Joseph Kosinski-directed flick (pro tip: please, for the love of God, rent Only the Brave) had $202.4 million worldwide as of yesterday and now, assuming continued 38/62 domestic/overseas splits, should sit at around $218 million worldwide heading into the weekend.

Whether you consider it an outright original or, as Jeremy convincingly argued on the pod, closer to a “new to cinema IP,” it’s another less-conventional win for Warner Bros. Discovery with a major tentpole (Superman) and a potential breakout genre sleeper (Weapons) on the horizon. With July and August both almost entirely stacked with refurbished all-quadrant franchises of varying value, F1: The Movie should easily position itself as the babysitter-worthy event (and “must-see on a big screen”) movie of the moment, both for grown-ups and anyone who isn’t obsessively anticipating new variations of (just offhand) Superman, Fantastic Four, Smufs, Naked Gun, Toxic Avenger and Freaky Friday.

Days of Thunder earned 55% less ($158 million in 1990) than Top Gun ($355 million in 1986), and a similar “compared to Top Gun: Maverick’s $1.49 billion global cume” run would give F1 $665 million. Likewise, the domestic split ($177 million in 1986 and $82 million in 1990) would total $337 million for WBD and Apple’s proverbial Days of Thunder: Maverick. Again, this isn’t a prediction, just two fun statistics worth tossing out there, just in case. As it laps Driven ($55 million globally in 2001), F1 should pass the global total of Ford v Ferrari ($226 million in 2019) by the end of this sentence.