Box Office: How “Survive 'til '25” Became a Cruel Mirage
Too few major studios still releasing too few major movies, with too many would-be tentpoles consisting of once-were-special franchise revivals, paint a grim picture.
Five years ago, Disney was bracing for an underwhelming opening weekend for Pixar’s original Onward. However, even if the original animated adventure debuted with the projected over/under $40 million launch, pre-release tracking suggested that the live-action Mulan remake would open with over/under $75 million in North America, suggesting a domestic run akin to Cinderella ($201 million from a $67 million debut in 2015) and making the question of whether Chinese audiences would give a damn relatively irrelevant. A Quiet Place part II was set to drop in mid-March with a $55-$65 million Fri-Sun launch, continuing what seemed to be a hot streak for Paramount following Sonic the Hedgehog and preceding the planned late-June debut of Top Gun: Maverick. However, just two days prior (yes, I should have written this on Tuesday), MGM and Universal had shocked the industry by delaying No Time to Die from April 8 to November 25. We all know what followed.
Cut to March 6, 2025. Bong Joon-ho’s Robert Pattinson-starring Mickey 17 is the industry’s first biggie since Captain America: Brave New World debuted with “just” $101 million over President’s Day weekend. The equally underwhelming run for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania in 2023 was preceded by Avatar: The Way of Water in late 2022 and M3GAN in early 2023, and followed by Creed III, Scream VI, John Wick: Chapter 4 and The Super Mario Bros. Movie straight through until summer. But Mickey 17 would love to open merely on par with Ad Astra. Snow White would be (almost) relieved with Dumbo grosses. A Minecraft Movie would be a win if it earns in total what Super Mario Bros. earned in its first five days. Barring a miracle, they will provide no comparable post-MCU salvation. Sans even an early-year horror hit akin to Escape Room, the “Survive ‘til ‘25” mantra is thus far a cruel mirage.