Box Office: This June Was Not A Good Month For Movie Theaters

The last four weeks were mostly subsidized by May holdovers, as underwhelming newbies -- and a fewer number of available films -- led to a historically weak total.

The specifics of this weekend’s box office, the good news (F1) and the bad news (M3GAN 2.0), will arrive later. This began as an introduction but quickly evolved into a standalone piece, so enjoy this accidental (unpaywalled) bonus article.

This weekend’s overall domestic box office will total around $130 million. The good news is that the decline from this weekend in 2024 ($155 million) to this weekend in 2025 is primarily due to A Quiet Place: Day One opening with $51 million alongside the $57 million third weekend of Inside Out 2. That we had even one $50 million-plus opener in what might have been a “calm before the storm” pre-holiday frame is a sign of before-times. However, in raw unadjusted domestic grosses, even leaving out “weekend 26” frames that fell amid the Independence Day holiday weekend, this is among the lower totals for this respective frame amid the last 26 years.

Using two key examples, the pre-holiday weekend in 2013 (with Monsters University opening with $82 million alongside World War Z’s $66 million debut and Man of Steel’s $52 million second-weekend gross) totaled $190 million, while the same frame in 2007 (with Ratatouille opening with $48 million as Live Free or Die Hard nabbed $33 million amid a $48 million Wed-Sun launch) totaled $155 million. It’s not a zero-sum game, but a key part of the difference is, of course, that we used to have a big-deal Pixar flick (like, say, Wall-E, Finding Dory and Cars 2) *and* a big-deal adult-skewing genre film (like, for example, Wanted, Central Intelligence and Bad Teacher) thriving concurrently.

There is still a day remaining, but this June is projected to reach around $800 million. Depending on whether it surpasses the $809 million total for 2007 (which was topped by a May release, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End), this June could be the lowest non-COVID June since the $721 million total in 2001. That month was also topped by a May release, specifically Shrek. Yes, in all three instances, a strong May frame (May 2007 saw three $300 million-grossing sequels all opening between $113 million and $151 million over their Fri-Sun debuts) led to a less-than-superlative June. The high-performing holdovers somewhat offset the comparatively weak new releases.

This June was boosted by big releases from late May, such as Lilo & Stitch, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and Final Destination: Bloodlines. New releases for June, currently earning around $400 million (with F1 just getting started), will eventually total (very rough but optimistic math) around $700 million. That would still be the lowest June total for new movies since 2003, when Hulk’s $132 million contributed to a $560 million month. On a case-by-case basis, many films from those months performed at least as well as needed. The new release slate in June of 2003 totalling $560 million is less of an issue than this June’s newbies totaling around $700 million. 

All due respect to the real success stories, like How to Train Your Dragon ($200 million s far and soaring toward $250 million) and presumably F1 (a $58 million domestic debut and likely to earn at least $175 million in North America), the month was still represented by yet another Pixar disappointment (Elio may not crack $100 million domestically) and underwhelming “IP fo the sake of IP” flicks like Karate Kid: Legends (which opened on May 30, but humor me), Ballerina and (decent opening aside) 28 Years Later. To be fair, last summer performed well after a poor May, thanks to a strong June. There’s no long-term harm in a strong May followed by a weak June.

Well, as long as July and August bring the proverbial thunder. Just as was the (relative) case in the summers of 2016, 2023, and 2024, the overall narrative may be determined by how three key July releases perform. In 2016, all late-season hopes rested on Star Trek, Ghostbusters: Answer the Call, and Jason Bourne. Weak grosses for Indiana Jones 5, The Flash, and Elemental fueled optimistic hopes for Mission: Impossible 7, Barbie, and Oppenheimer. However, I’d argue Sound of Freedom made up for a slightly underwhelming Dead Reckoning run. With last summer partially held up by Despicable Me 4, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Twisters, all eyes are now on Jurassic World Rebirth, Superman, and Fantastic Four.

Another factor beyond “Pixar used to be a big shot, dammit” is that theaters used to have more movies. This June saw 102 releases compared to 172 in 2015 and 198 in 2005, with only 36 new arrivals in June compared to 74 in 2018 and 57 in 2007. It’s not as simple as “more movies = higher box office.” Still, even as theaters are forced to earn more from fewer movies through higher ticket and concession prices, and a push toward premium-large formats, fancier “fork-and-knife” food options, and sexier collectible popcorn buckets, it’s a trend that shouldn’t be ignored. If you’re pissed about AMC adding more commercials, maybe you should blame Disney for buying Fox.