Box Office: 'Thunderbolts' Nabs $11.5 Million Thursday

With strong reviews and solid initial buzz, Marvel’s would-be “comeback” flick could clock a Fri-Sun domestic debut closer to $80 million than $70 million.

Thunderbolts began its domestic theatrical run with $11.5 million in Thursday preview grosses. That compares, recently and not counting holiday debuts, to Eternals ($9.5 million toward a $71 million Fri-Sun debut) in 2021, Black Widow ($13.2 million/$80 million with concurrent Disney+ Premier Access) in 2021, Ant-Man and the Wasp ($11.5 million/$76 million) in 2018. In the name of “mercy,” shall merely note The Marvels ($6.6 million/$46 million) in 2023.

Since they are the only live-action “Sony Spider-Man Universe” spin-offs to play like even a mid-level MCU flick in North America, throw in Venom ($10 million/$80 million) in 2018, Let There Be Carnage $11.6 million/$90 million) in 2021 and The Last Dance ($8.5 million/$51 million) in 2024. Just running the math, Thunderbolts is looking at a domestic opening weekend between $70 million and $86 million.

Sure, it could pull an unexpected level of casual viewership and general audience walk-up business and flirt with $90-$100 million. Think — in terms of Thursday-to-weekend legs — Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($146 million debut this weekend from a $17 million Thursday) or those first two Venom flicks. However, there’s a difference between “not bad for a recent MCU flick” and “Must-see if you checked out years ago.”