Box Office: 'Wicked Part One' Conjures A Bewitching (Especially For What It Is Not) $46.7 Million Friday

Universal's musical fantasy aims for a $115 million-plus opening weekend, placing it among the biggest domestic debuts ever for an entirely "new to cinema" franchise.

Universal’s Wicked Part One opened with $46.74 million on Friday, including $19.2 million in pre-release preview grosses. While that’s lower than the various Harry Potter, Twilight Saga and Hunger Games flicks that tended to dominate this pre-Thanksgiving weekend for much of the 2000s and 2010s, it’s A) bigger than the entire opening weekend of last year’s (eventually quite leggy) The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, B) is pantsing those pesky Fantastic Beasts movies and C) still pretty fucking huge by any other standard. I mean, it had a bigger opening day than Frozen II ($42 million in 2019) and (inflation notwithstanding) and Alice in Wonderland ($41 million in March of 2010).

It’s the 14th biggest “not a sequel” Friday gross ever. Most of the other 13 are Marvel movies (Deadpool, Captain Marvel, Black Panther and The Avengers) that I’m loathe to classify as “first installments” or reboots/remakes (The Super Mario Bros. Movie — which opened on a Wednesday, Man of Steel, The Batman, Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King). In terms of” *new to cinema, period* franchises, Wicked Part One sits behind It ($50 million), The Hunger Games ($67 million) and Barbie ($70 million). The Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande-starring adaptation of Stephen Schwartz and Winnie Holzman’s beloved musical is set to join Barbie and It among the biggest “new to cinema” franchise flicks in a generation.

Offhand, weekend legs like Hunger Games or Twilight films will result in a $95-$105 million debut. Realistically, legs like Justice League or the Fantastic Beasts films will give it an over/under $115 million Fri-Sun total. Legs like the earlier Harry Potter films and Frozen II will result in a $130-$140 million launch. A $111 million Fri-Sun debut will put it third for the year behind Inside Out 2 ($155 million) and Deadpool & Wolverine ($211 million). It’ll be the 19th non-sequel to top $100 million over its Fri-Sun opening weekend. In terms of “new to cinema” franchises, it will be right alongside Secret Life of Pets ($104 million), The Hunger Games ($152 million) and Barbie ($162 million).

Regarding musicals, that opening day/Friday sits behind only the live-action Beauty and the Beast remake ($63 million in 2019) and the live-action The Lion King remake ($77 million in 2019). However, the total Fri-Sun debut may end up under the $130 million opening weekend for the animated Frozen II ($130 million his weekend in 2019). Universal’s Wicked Part One is technically trouncing milestones for Broadway adaptations, so take that, Universal’s Dear Evan Hanson (There will be no requiem for you!!) and/or Universal’s Mamma Mia! (Sorry, but the winner takes it all!). The likes of Into the Woods (a $31 million Fri-Sun debut weekend in 2014), Les Miserables (a $67 million Tues-Sun debut in 2012) and Rent tended to open over long holiday weekends.

Among Universal opening Fridays, it’s behind only Minions: The Rise of Gru ($48.2 million), Super Mario Bros. ($54 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($59 million), Jurassic World: Dominion ($60 million), Furious 7 ($67 million) and Jurassic World ($83 million). It’s easily Jon M. Chu’s biggest single-day gross. If it opens with at least $115 million, it’ll be Universal’s seventh biggest opening. We’ll see where it falls tomorrow in terms of Minions ($116 million), The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($146 million amid a $204 million Wed-Sun debut), Furious 7 ($147 million) and the Jurassic World trilogy ($145 million, $148 million and $208 million). However, most of those Despicable Me/Minions movies opened over extended July 4 holiday frames.

This all boils down to Wicked Part One opening spectacularly well for what it is and, perhaps more importantly, for what it isn’t. It’s not a remake, an MCU continuation or a DC superhero movie. It’s a female-focused tentpole that isn’t a “give the girl a sword and call it a day” fantasy actioner. When the film was greenlit in June of 2016, I argued it was a chance for Donna Langley’s Universal to show that they could deliver big-budget fairy tale/princess-ish adventure epics on par with Cinderella and Moana (as opposed to… The Huntsman: Winter’s War). Even presuming Moana II is at least pretty good, Disney no longer has the benefit of the doubt in this arena.

With Disney tripling down on sequels to their own (and Fox’s) 2010s franchise successes, a “new to moviegoers” adaptation like Wicked Part One shows that there’s room and hunger for high-quality fantasy franchises not *just* within the Disney empire and not *only* coasting on 1990-2019 nostalgia. Yes, Wicked is based on a 21-year-old stage show based on Gregory Maguire’s 29-year-old book that was a prequel to The Wizard of Oz. Yet, especially by today’s standards, thanks to well-liked actors (Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande) as marquee characters (Elphaba and Glinda), solid reviews and interest both within the existing fandom and those who merely like what it’s selling, It — sorry, Freudian slip — it still qualifies as a “new” franchise success.