'Captain America 4': Why Bad Buzz May Prove More Important Than Big Box Office

Lousy reviews and poor word-of-mouth point to Marvel's 'Brave New World' finishing closer domestically and globally to 'The First Avenger' than 'The Winter Soldier'.

I spent a few paragraphs yesterday detailing past examples of objectively big opening weekends (Watchmen, Green Lantern, Justice League, Solo, and even Lightyear) that I accurately greeted with ominous proclamations of doom and gloom. Yes, it seems odd to be bagging on a film like Captain America: Brave New World opening with around $100 million over its Fri-Mon President’s Day weekend. And, yes, there have been instances where I either had to defend a lower-than-hoped debut (when Shrek Forever After “only” opened with $71 million in 2010) or was more pessimistic than I should have been when a significant franchise title didn’t open as big as expected (when Toy Story 4 opened with “just” $110 million in 2019). However, regarding relative precedents (openers on this weekend) and the specific variables at play (poor reviews and soft buzz), the odds are not in Captain America 4’s post-debut favor.