‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Could Be Another ‘No Way Home’ or the Next ‘Black Adam'

Blockbuster success is assured, but the demographics excited for Hugh Jackman's return as Wolverine may entirely overlap with those psyched for a 'Deadpool 3'.

As promised, Walt Disney and 20th Century Studios dropped the second Deadpool & Wolverine trailer this morning. And since it’s likely timed to play with the R-rated romantic drama Challengers, it’s a red band offering whose main highlight is watching Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine/Logan repeatedly say the “f-word.” If the whole pitch is merely the notion of our Deadpool hanging out with a random alt-world Wolverine, the question becomes A) how much is that worth? and B) are there that many people excited about a Wolverine/Deadpool team-up who otherwise wouldn’t have shown up for a Deadpool 3?

Not our Wolverine, just *a* Wolverine.

The opening narration affirms that it’s an alt-world Logan, meaning it’s not *literally* negating the finale of James Mangold’s Logan. So, instead of Ryan Reynolds’ Wade Wilson/Deadpool palling around with the version of Logan we know and love, it’s just (apparently) another random universe’s version. 

The MCU’s previous multiverse adventures—at least in theaters—made a point of grounding the alt-versions in a specific pre-sold awareness. The version of Professor Xavier who lost his head in Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was a variation from the 1997 cartoon. Maybe Bishop should travel back or forward in time to warn the current animated incarnation accordingly. Tom Holland’s Peter Parker fought alongside two Spider-Men against five villains who were not from his universe but were previously established characters from established Spider-Man franchises.

The notion of “Hugh Jackman as Wolverine” in the abstract is arguably less impactful than “Hugh Jackman as the Wolverine who partook in those Fox X-Men movies you saw and mostly liked.” The entire hook thus far of Deadpool & Wolverine is the mere notion of our Deadpool teaming up with *a* Wolverine. 

Again, this is a trailer, so we may find out that this version of Logan – wearing the yellow spandex but not the mask because they want to sell Jackman’s face – is from the 1997 cartoon or the 1992 Konami arcade game. Or maybe he really is just some random Wolverine from a random doomed universe, which frankly puts him in a similar position as Michael Keaton’s Batman variation in last summer’s The Flash. 

Does Hugh Jackman as Logan bring any *new* audiences to the theater?

Deadpool earned $783 million in 2016. Deadpool 2 earned $786 million in 2018, partially thanks to a PG-13 Once Upon a Deadpool cut that earned an additional $51 million (including $42 million in China) at year’s end. I’m reasonably confident that this third film can earn grosses on par with its predecessors. However, Deadpool 2 sans the PG-13 version dropped 6% from Deadpool (a great hold), but 93.8% of $735 million is $689 million or below Dune Part Two ($695 million and counting).

While likely taking a hit from overall MCU disinterest (in the abstract) and Disney+ muddying the waters for Disney theatricals, we can also note inflation since 2018 (Deadpool 2’s domestic cume would be around $384 million today), a growing preference for more expensive PLF auditoriums and younger moviegoers aging to a point where they can see the R-rated but presumably kid-friendly threequel (think Jackass Forever, not Civil War) in theaters. 

Throw in Reynolds’ emergence as the kid-friendly movie star of Detective Pikachu and Free Guy (also becoming, for better or worse, perhaps the biggest butts-on-couch movie star of the streaming era), and there’s little reason why Deadpool 3 won’t make “most of the money.” However, here’s the $1 billion question: Is the moviegoing demographic excited for a third Deadpool flick and the demo thrilled for the return of Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine (in the abstract or not) essentially the same? 

The best comp could be… Black Adam?

If so, it’s no different than what we saw with Dwayne Johnson’s Black Adam. Put aside the “cost too much” variable (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Journey 2, Skyscraper, San Andreas, Hercules and Rampage all cost $90-$130 million, not $200 million-plus) and the “was expecting an extra $100 million from China when it was greenlit in pre-COVID times” factor. The film earned $168 million domestically and $393 million worldwide. 

That was on par with a mid-level DC Films hit like Shazam! ($365 million on a $90 million budget in 2019) and an upper-level Dwayne Johnson-led action fantasy like Rampage ($433 million, including $155 million from China, on a $120 million budget). Dwayne Johnson in a big-budget, kid-friendly action fantasy and Dwayne Johnson as a B-level DC superhero played to near-identical demographics. It was a case of one plus one equals one. 

That’s not to say Deadpool & Wolverine will “flop” or any such nonsense. Hell, had Black Adam opened in non-COVID circumstances as just a big Dwayne Johnson-starring DCEU flick (before the years of HBO Max, Snyder Cut and regime change-related chaos) with a 2010s-era China in play, the film A) probably would have cost closer to $190 million than $230 million and B) probably would have flirted with $550 million worldwide. 

And without China kicking in another $42 million for a PG-13 version this time, then the initial $318 million domestic and $735 million total for Deadpool 2 (still terrific, especially on a $110 million budget) should be what we’re working from. Concurrently, Black Adam is the best comparison as to why Deadpool 3 (recall that both Deadpool films already earned more than any previous X-Men movies – including the $620 million-grossing Logan) might not be the Spider-Man: No Way Home of Deadpool flicks. 

Maybe the third Deadpool movie will play like a Deadpool movie.

Hell, while it would have been massive at any point in time, Spider-Man 3 Version 2.0 would probably have earned closer to Far from Home’s $1.13 billion (horrors, I know) than No Way Home’s $1.91 billion had it played as “just” one huge tentpole opening on July 16, 2021, amid a conventional summer line-up as initially intended. Its place as that year’s holiday season all-quadrant dynamo made a world of difference, as (see also: Titanic, Avatar, Aquaman, Wonka, Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, Night at the Museum, etc.) it always does. 

Again, this is about not treating “$1 billion worldwide” as a generic catch-all description for “this film will be a big hit.” Despicable Me 4 is arguably our only surefire over/under $1 billion grosser, although Mufasa (opening alongside Sonic the Hedgehog 3 as the year-end biggies) can earn 39% less than The Lion King ($1.663 billion in 2019) and still crack $1 billion. It'll be fine if Deadpool 3 merely plays like a Deadpool movie. And it won’t “save the MCU” any more than Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, each topping $850 million, prevented Quantumania and The Marvels from bombing.

Shawn Levy’s Deadpool & Wolverine opens from 20th Century Studios on July 26. As always, we’ll see.