'Dune 2' Tops $100M: How Both Sci-Fi Epics Benefited From Lower Box Office Expectations

Both Timothee Chalamet/Zendaya 'Dune' films were graded on a commercial curve

Denis Villeneuve’s $190 million sequel earned another $7.3 million on Monday, dropping 66.1% from its $20.2 million Sunday gross. It earned $8.15 million on Tuesday (+12% from Monday), bringing its five-day total to $97.96 million. Presuming a continued 45/55 split, it should have around $217 million worldwide. Regardless, it’ll pass $100 million domestic by the end of this sentence.

It’s already past Bob Marley: One Love ($83 million domestic) and The Beekeeper ($152 million worldwide) to be Hollywood’s biggest earner of 2024 thus far. It’s still well behind the Lunar New Year Chinese tentpoles (Bonnie Bears: Time Twist with $270 million, Article 20 with $320 million, Pegasus 2 with $460 million and Yolo with $480 million), but that should be a temporary circumstance.

It had a better domestic Sunday-to-Monday hold than any big “first tentpole of March” release since Zack Snyder’s 300 (-58% from an $18 million Sunday/$70 million opening weekend) in March 2007. Its 12% jump on “cheap ticket Tuesday” — a lesser boost than Logan and Captain Marvel but better than the 0.5% drop for The Batman — made sense. The “gotta see it in more expensive PLF formats” appeal for this Legendary/WBD flick implied that folks might have waited until they could buy an Imax ticket for $13 instead of $23.

However, even with sky-high buzz, reviews, media coverage, likely future Oscar glory and related goodwill, we are still probably looking at a film that plays over/under Logan ($226 million for an R-rated movie that cost $98 million) in North America with around $505 million worldwide (on par with Venom: Let There Be Carnage) plus whatever it earns in China (March 8) and Japan (March 15). Rough math — Dune earned $39.5 million in China while Ready Player One earned $23 million in Japan — Dune Part Two may end its global run with a worldwide cume between (depending on if it’s leggier than I’d presume here and/or abroad) The Little Mermaid and Mission: Impossible 7 (over/under $565 million) and Wonka ($625 million).

That’s a solid result, but it’s only possible because the theatrical release of the first Dune was treated as a kind of theatrical savior despite not performing all that well in theaters. And now, Dune Part Two is being treated as an A+-level tentpole smash despite earning “merely” A- or B+ box office. Both films have had the benefit of being graded on a relative curve.