'Dune Part Two' Box Office: Six Lessons From A Towering $179 Million Worldwide Debut

Why David Zaslav is theatrical's new best friend, how Timothée Chalamet is the new Chris Pratt and more...!

Dune Part Two rode the worm, ingested the spice, misused the AMC popcorn bucket, etc., this weekend as it debuted with a terrific $81.5 million domestically and $178.5 million worldwide (both figures may go up when the final grosses are released on Monday). That’s double the $40 million domestic launch of the first Dune in October 2021. With better reviews (94% versus 83%), a better CinemaScore grade (an A versus an A-) and even a better weekend multiplier (2.5x from a $32 million Friday versus 2.23x from a $17.5 million Friday), the Legendary/Warner Bros. Discovery release is one-upping its predecessor in almost every way.  

At least for the weekend, and probably over the long haul, Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic is a true-blue break-out sequel. Congratulations, Paul Atreides, *now* you’re John Wick... Oh, and obviously, congratulations, Warner Bros. Discovery, you’re still more than just Batman and Harry Potter. Before we get into lessons and takeaways, some quick math.  

If Dune 2 legs like Dune 1 ($108 million from a $40 million debut), it still makes it to $220 million domestically, essentially tying with Timothée Chalamet’s other WBD-released “aspirational do-gooder achieves his dreams but eventually gets corrupted by ultimate power” fantasy. It won’t have comparative COVID variables or Project Popcorn getting in the way. However, it is a sequel that just opened with double its predecessor, so the latter might somewhat cancel out the former.  

A 2.7x weekend-to-final multiplier is far from frontloaded, as early-March blockbusters like Logan ($226 million/$88 million in 2017), Captain Marvel ($427 million/$155 million in 2019), The Batman ($370 million/$133 million in 2022) or Creed III ($157 million/$58 million in 2023) can attest. However, the film has everything going for it (it went up 29% on Saturday compared to its raw Friday sans previews gross), with upcoming March biggies (Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters: The Frozen Empire and Godzilla x Kong) potentially skewing younger.  

A slight uptick in post-debut legs wouldn’t shock me. Aside from the “rizz” factors in its favor, we may see a situation akin to Avatar: The Way of Water whereby moviegoers wait for better seats at more convenient showtimes at their nearest PLF auditorium. The likes of Dolby and Imax made up a whopping 48% of the domestic earnings, with Imax repping 18% worldwide. Does that mean doom-n-gloom once Dune 2 loses its Imax screens (and presumably most of its other PLF screens) to Ghostbusters ... uh... 4 on March 22? Maybe, but that’s a day-22 problem.  

Offhand, even a 2.85x multiplier gets this flick to $232 million domestic, while a mere 2.46x gets it past $200 million. And with $179 million global, with China on March 8 and Japan on March 15, I’d wager a global cume between $550 million and $625 million, which would be fine for the $190 million release. So, what lessons can be learned from this blowout win? That invaluable wisdom is for paid subscribers…!