‘Dune Part Two’ Worms Its Way to Spicy $12 Million at Thursday Box Office

The anticipated sci-fi sequel is still looking at a terrific $75-$80 million opening

Dune Part Two started strong in North America, earning $12 million in pre-release previews. That includes the standard Thursday showings (beginning as early as 3:00 pm) and an Imax-centric sneak preview held this past Sunday. Dune earned $5.1 million in its Thursday preview showings in October 2021, leading to a $40 million domestic Fri-Sun debut. If this second installment of the Denis Villeneuve-directed, Timothée Chalamet/Zendaya/Javier Bardem/Josh Brolin/Austin Butler/Rebecca Ferguson/Florence Pugh-led sci-fi franchise (which is less a part two of two and more the middle chapter of a trilogy) plays likewise, the Warner Bros. Discovery/Legendary release will earn a towering $94 million for the weekend.

However, there are a few disclaimers, less about “Oh no, Dune 2 is gonna bomb!” and more about “Hey, don’t pull another King Kong or Avatar: The Way of Water.” If you recall, those two mid-December tentpoles had such hype and anticipation upon release that their objectively spectacular opening weekends ($69 million over Wed-Sun in 2005 and $133 million Fri-Sun in 2022) were seen as seeming disappointments. Both films earned strong reviews and solid word of mouth, eventually leading to better-than-good global results ($550 million in 2005, a sad, shameful $2.3 billion in 2022).

I’ll admit that I “took the bait” when Toy Story 4 “only” opened with $120 million in June of 2019 and had to (happily) eat a little crow when the terrific Pixar sequel legged out to $430 million domestic and $1 billion global. I remember chuckling when Disney’s otherwise standard pre-release presser for The Lion King a month later said (my words), “Guys, please don’t be stupid if it only makes most of the money on opening weekend instead of all the money.”

I’ve said from the start that A) the online hype for Dune and Dune Part Two may not be directly proportional to general audience interest and B) the first Dune arguably earned about whatever it was going to earn ($108 million domestic and $402 million worldwide) with or without Covid variables and Project Popcorn. So, while Dune Part Two may outright double its domestic debut (the pandemic and HBO Max arguably did more harm to Dune’s domestic box office than its overseas grosses), we shouldn’t get ourselves hyped up to the point where a $65-$75 million debut is seen as a whiff.

First, Dune Part Two is a sequel, and sequels tend to be more frontloaded than initial installments. Second, while film nerds and journalists raved about the first Dune in late 2021, the general audiences gave it a “mere” A- from CinemaScore and legged to “just” 2.7x its $40 million debut. Opening in the same month, No Time to Die earned $160 million from a $55 million debut. That means that not unlike Blumhouse’s Halloween legacy sequel, critics may have liked it more than audiences. That, in turn, means plenty of consumers decided that one Dune was enough Dunes for them.

Third, and this is frankly more plausible than not, we may see a merely “very good, thank you” opening weekend followed by comparatively long legs. First, it’s the only remotely adult-skewing biggie in the marketplace until, uh, Universal’s Monkey Man (relatively speaking) in early April. I expect Kung Fu Panda 4 and Ghostbusters: The Frozen Empire to be relatively big (especially the former), but A) I don’t see many cool kids and date night couples checking out the DreamWorks sequel or the Sony follow-up.

Moreover, and this is what stymied Avatar 2 (to the point where Disney’s stock dropped 10% after a mere $425 million global debut), Dune Part Two is being sold as a movie that demands the biggest and best screen you can find. Audiences might wait for decent seats at a convenient showtime in PLF (Imax, Dolby, etc.) auditoriums rather than opt for a conventional DLP showing on opening weekend. Just looking around on Fandango, it was much, much easier to get a decent seat for a non-PLF theater this weekend than snagging a Friday night Imax or Saturday afternoon Dolby showing.

A straight-up 12.75% Thursday-to-weekend split gives it $94 million, making it a rare sequel to double the opening of its predecessor and putting it just above the $93 million launch of Taylor Swift: The ERAS Tour as the biggest debut since Barbie ($169 million) in July of 2023. A more frontloaded 15% gives it a still-terrific $80 million, on par with Oppenheimer on that same mid-July #Barbenheimer weekend. No, I don’t think we’re looking at an over/under 20% Thursday-to-weekend figure (as we saw with The Dark Knight Rises and the later Twilight and Harry Potter sequels), but that would give the $190 million epic a $60 million launch, still a terrific 50% jump from its predecessor.

Is it possible that all of this caution is for naught and Dune Part Two is a pop culture event unto itself (think, *relatively speaking,* The Dark Knight or Terminator 2: Judgment Day) beyond just being another Dune movie? I suppose, and a 10% split would (obviously) give it a $120 million domestic debut. Even an 11% split akin to It ($123 million from a $13.5 million Thursday) gets it to $109 million. Even Thursday-to-weekend legs akin to Joker ($96 million from a $13.3 million Thursday) would put Dune Part Two’s opening weekend just above both Oppenheimer and the $86 million launch of Five Nights At Freddy’s.

Regardless, I’m pretty sure that Dune Part Two can pull a weekend-to-final multiplier slightly above that video game adaptation’s whopping 1.71x, although WBD and Legendary will still be thrilled if Dune Part Two pulls domestic ($215 million) and global ($615 million) earnings on par with the previous WBD-distributed Timothée Chalamet-led flick about a false prophet who begins as a symbol of hope before becoming… well, no spoilers but you get the idea. Oompa Loompa doom pa-dee-do, never trust a prophecy that idolizes you!