I agree that when considering the strike-related movie delays, 2024's domestic box office being only ~4% behind 2023's is the best-case scenario miracle that should be the ultimate positive sign for analysts regarding general audiences getting in the habit of frequently going to the movies. That difference is basically just Joker 2 making about $100-200m less than we'd expect, and one less Marvel or Mission Impossible movie that got moved. For next year's highest worldwide grossers, I agree that the top two guaranteed hits are certainly Avatar: Fire and Ash (probably $2b+) and Zootopia 2 (probably $1b+), and it's funny how they're both the sequels to the highest-grossing original movies ever, releasing three weeks apart by the same studio. Besides those two, I predict Wicked 2: For Good and Jurassic World: Rebirth have a chance at getting closer to $1b than $700m, and $600-700m will be the realistic best-case scenario totals for the three MCU movies, Gunn's Superman, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning, Elio, and the three Disney and Dreamworks live-action remakes. A Minecraft Movie will be the ultimate wildcard, but I'll lean on the optimistic side, since I can't imagine it costs more than $150m, so even $450m would be good enough, and there's the special curiosity factor of it being the first Minecraft film, so like Five Nights at Freddy's, fans will want to see what it's all about and how it adapts the game, even if they all just want to go with their friends to laugh at how dumb it looks. I like how it's being released two weeks after Snow White (which from the trailer looks to at least be adding some new plot points), making these two movies the ultimate "old school vs. new school" family film adaptations that involve mining. At least there will be an option for today's kids who like Minecraft and don't care about a movie from their great-grandparents' generation, which could be concerning news for that photo-realistic Bambi movie I assume Disney's still planning. I think there could be some surprise modest over-performers in the first four months, like Wolfman, One of Them Days, Companion, Love Hurts, Novocaine, and The Amateur, plus the other movies you all mentioned. 2024 could've been a great return-to-form year for the theatrical industry and box office absent the strike-related (and other production-related) delays of the next two MCU movies (only getting 1 instead of 3 this year), Beyond the Spider-Verse, Elio, and Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning. Assuming those five movies all did at least a reasonable $150-200m domestic each, that would probably be at least $9.5b+ for 2024, and now all of those besides Spider-Verse 3 will be releasing next year, alongside the more surefire tentpoles I already predicted to be the highest-grossing films of 2025. I'm fairly confident next year's line-up won't have a disastrous flame-out underperformance like The Marvels or Joker 2 because with these specific creators and franchises, the biggest blockbusters can't possibly be that disappointing. Gareth Edwards will make an entertaining dinosaur movie, Jared Bush can write a sequel to Zootopia after helping craft the first one's masterful script, James Cameron will undoubtedly deliver for Avatar 3, 4, and 5, Wicked 2 is practically already in the bag if it's like the first one, Universal will be overseeing the story, budget, production, and marketing of Five Nights at Freddy's 2 with the expectation of theatrical success this time (and also for Wolfman, M3GAN 2.0, and The Black Phone 2), and James Gunn can make enjoyable, heartfelt, standalone superhero movies that have good stories even if you don't care about the pre-existing characters beforehand. Even for the three MCU movies, in terms of giving Marvel fans the best version of what they want and expect, Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts just have to please fans of the characters in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Black Widow, and Hawkeye and be consistent with those projects, while Matt Shakman's The Fantastic Four: First Steps can emulate his upbeat tone when directing WandaVision to please fans. Overall, I believe that even if most of these films only do fairly average business, with few but the most surefire (Avatar 3, Zootopia 2, Jurassic World 4, and Wicked 2) doing top-tier, best-case scenario business, at least there's unlikely to be any catastrophic under-performances at this blockbuster-level, so a $9.5b+ total is realistically attainable. If most of next year's movies, of all shapes and sizes, are at least good and crowd-pleasing, then a $10b+ total may be possible, but at this point, I can understand analysts not wanting to irresponsibly inflate expectations. But it could be possible, and if not, 2026 goals? I personally believe we have to accept that after 2019, with Disney buying Fox, so they only make 5-10 instead of 15-20 movies per year, alongside more movies being made for Netflix and now many more streaming services, it will always be more likely for the annual domestic box office to consistently hover around $10b instead of $11b going forward, and that this should've been expected even absent the pandemic, since the streaming wars still would've happened, and if at least 10% of all movies made every year are bypassing theatrical for streaming, we should consider ourselves lucky and grateful that the box office is only down about 9% for the foreseeable future. At least it seems like Disney and Universal will continue to dominate for the next two years. I look forward to their War of 2026, when (as Jeremy called it) Fast X: The Last of the Furious will be released on the same day as Toy Story 5, Nolan's adaptation of The Odyssey will be released on the same day as Margot Robbie/LuckyChap's (Disney-purchased) Monopoly/Sims crossover movie, and Sing 3 will be released on the same day as Ice Age 6. This war could leave both studios bankrupt with all their franchises completely exploited and milked dry until there's nothing left, but it's the only way to achieve that elusive goal of another $11b+ box office year.
I agree that when considering the strike-related movie delays, 2024's domestic box office being only ~4% behind 2023's is the best-case scenario miracle that should be the ultimate positive sign for analysts regarding general audiences getting in the habit of frequently going to the movies. That difference is basically just Joker 2 making about $100-200m less than we'd expect, and one less Marvel or Mission Impossible movie that got moved. For next year's highest worldwide grossers, I agree that the top two guaranteed hits are certainly Avatar: Fire and Ash (probably $2b+) and Zootopia 2 (probably $1b+), and it's funny how they're both the sequels to the highest-grossing original movies ever, releasing three weeks apart by the same studio. Besides those two, I predict Wicked 2: For Good and Jurassic World: Rebirth have a chance at getting closer to $1b than $700m, and $600-700m will be the realistic best-case scenario totals for the three MCU movies, Gunn's Superman, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning, Elio, and the three Disney and Dreamworks live-action remakes. A Minecraft Movie will be the ultimate wildcard, but I'll lean on the optimistic side, since I can't imagine it costs more than $150m, so even $450m would be good enough, and there's the special curiosity factor of it being the first Minecraft film, so like Five Nights at Freddy's, fans will want to see what it's all about and how it adapts the game, even if they all just want to go with their friends to laugh at how dumb it looks. I like how it's being released two weeks after Snow White (which from the trailer looks to at least be adding some new plot points), making these two movies the ultimate "old school vs. new school" family film adaptations that involve mining. At least there will be an option for today's kids who like Minecraft and don't care about a movie from their great-grandparents' generation, which could be concerning news for that photo-realistic Bambi movie I assume Disney's still planning. I think there could be some surprise modest over-performers in the first four months, like Wolfman, One of Them Days, Companion, Love Hurts, Novocaine, and The Amateur, plus the other movies you all mentioned. 2024 could've been a great return-to-form year for the theatrical industry and box office absent the strike-related (and other production-related) delays of the next two MCU movies (only getting 1 instead of 3 this year), Beyond the Spider-Verse, Elio, and Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning. Assuming those five movies all did at least a reasonable $150-200m domestic each, that would probably be at least $9.5b+ for 2024, and now all of those besides Spider-Verse 3 will be releasing next year, alongside the more surefire tentpoles I already predicted to be the highest-grossing films of 2025. I'm fairly confident next year's line-up won't have a disastrous flame-out underperformance like The Marvels or Joker 2 because with these specific creators and franchises, the biggest blockbusters can't possibly be that disappointing. Gareth Edwards will make an entertaining dinosaur movie, Jared Bush can write a sequel to Zootopia after helping craft the first one's masterful script, James Cameron will undoubtedly deliver for Avatar 3, 4, and 5, Wicked 2 is practically already in the bag if it's like the first one, Universal will be overseeing the story, budget, production, and marketing of Five Nights at Freddy's 2 with the expectation of theatrical success this time (and also for Wolfman, M3GAN 2.0, and The Black Phone 2), and James Gunn can make enjoyable, heartfelt, standalone superhero movies that have good stories even if you don't care about the pre-existing characters beforehand. Even for the three MCU movies, in terms of giving Marvel fans the best version of what they want and expect, Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts just have to please fans of the characters in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Black Widow, and Hawkeye and be consistent with those projects, while Matt Shakman's The Fantastic Four: First Steps can emulate his upbeat tone when directing WandaVision to please fans. Overall, I believe that even if most of these films only do fairly average business, with few but the most surefire (Avatar 3, Zootopia 2, Jurassic World 4, and Wicked 2) doing top-tier, best-case scenario business, at least there's unlikely to be any catastrophic under-performances at this blockbuster-level, so a $9.5b+ total is realistically attainable. If most of next year's movies, of all shapes and sizes, are at least good and crowd-pleasing, then a $10b+ total may be possible, but at this point, I can understand analysts not wanting to irresponsibly inflate expectations. But it could be possible, and if not, 2026 goals? I personally believe we have to accept that after 2019, with Disney buying Fox, so they only make 5-10 instead of 15-20 movies per year, alongside more movies being made for Netflix and now many more streaming services, it will always be more likely for the annual domestic box office to consistently hover around $10b instead of $11b going forward, and that this should've been expected even absent the pandemic, since the streaming wars still would've happened, and if at least 10% of all movies made every year are bypassing theatrical for streaming, we should consider ourselves lucky and grateful that the box office is only down about 9% for the foreseeable future. At least it seems like Disney and Universal will continue to dominate for the next two years. I look forward to their War of 2026, when (as Jeremy called it) Fast X: The Last of the Furious will be released on the same day as Toy Story 5, Nolan's adaptation of The Odyssey will be released on the same day as Margot Robbie/LuckyChap's (Disney-purchased) Monopoly/Sims crossover movie, and Sing 3 will be released on the same day as Ice Age 6. This war could leave both studios bankrupt with all their franchises completely exploited and milked dry until there's nothing left, but it's the only way to achieve that elusive goal of another $11b+ box office year.