Friday Box Office: 'Wonka' Saves Christmas As 'Aquaman 2' Surfs Past 'The Marvels'
'The Color Purple,' 'The Boys in the Boat' and 'The Iron Claw' show the value of movies for/about regular Americans
Who can save the Christmas... when superheroes fail? Who can rally moviegoers right into their seats? The Candy Man can (Be my victim... falalalala)! Cause this season Wonka has the best pies in London, as the Paul King-directed musical prequel earned another $8.6 million (+8%) on Friday, bringing its total to $119 million domestically and $346 million worldwide. That points toward a $24.5 million (+36%) Fri-Sun frame and a $33 million holiday Fri-Mon frame. That means the $125 million-budgeted Timothee Chalamet-starring Warner Bros. Discovery/Village Roadshow flick will have a rousing $144 million domestic and $415 million global cume as it enters 2024. If that global guestimate holds, it’ll pass The Meg 2 ($390 million) to become Hollywood’s biggest theatrical earner since Barbie and Oppenheimer this past July.
It's legging out domestically almost identically to Jumanji: The Next Level, which had earned $183 million out of $320 million total by its third Monday in 2019. If Wonka continues likewise, and it’s not like January is jam-and-jelly-packed with tentpoles, the flick could end up above $250 million domestic and (if the current domestic/overseas split holds) $725 million worldwide.
Ironically, its main competition next month is a YA-skewing musical version of Mean Girls. Or... if we’re just talking British dudes offering sweets to the sweet, Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper.
Aquaman 2 swims past Captain Marvel 2
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom isn’t necessarily acting like the second coming of Morbius, even if that’s mostly thanks to (sung like Axel Rose) the long December legs. The DC Films finale earned another $6.75 million (-51%) on Friday for a $65 million domestic and $216 million global cume. So it’s already past The Marvels ($205 million global). That positions the James Wan-directed undersea fantasy for a $19 million (-32%) Fri-Sun, $25 million Fri-Mon frame and a possible $83.5 million domestic/$275 million worldwide cume. It’s not going to magically become a huge hit; it’ll be lucky to crack $55 million in China five years after the first Aquaman earned $298 million there. However, there exists math (think Sherlock Holmes or Tron: Legacy) that gets the $205 million-budgeted flick closer to $160 million than $120 million. Even that pessimistic prediction would give it, presuming a continued 30/70 domestic/overseas split, $400 million worldwide while the optimistic $160 million figure will give it a frankly face-saving (and admittedly perhaps overly optimistic) $526 million global cume.
The big test, of course, will be how it plays amid “normal” weekdays and weekends after the kids and their parents go back to school and work. After all, cue the Slash guitar solo, nothing lasts forever, not even long December legs.
Meanwhile, Universal and Illumination’s Migration is making the most of the holiday break period, earning another $6.7 million (+17%) on Friday for a new $43.8 million eight-day cume. We can expect a $16.6 million (+34%) Fri-Sun and $21.5 million Fri-Mon weekend for a $58.6 million 11-day domestic cume. It’ll pass Walt Disney’s Wish ($61 million by Monday) very early next week. The original $72 million toon will have around $100 million worldwide by Sunday with lots of juice still left in the can. This isn’t a performance on par with the first Sing (or the second Sing), but it’s a decent showing for a less razzle-dazzle non-IP animated feature during a time when such things have been struggling theatrically for years.
And if Aquaman 2 is underwhelming in comparison to its $1.15 billion-grossing predecessor ($335 million domestic from a $72 million debut), it’s also just one of three big movies WBD offered up as a Christmas present to theaters. Wonka is so far pulling its weight as the year-end fantasy tentpole (albeit on a smaller-than-Star Wars scale), and their other live-action musical The Color Purple is kicking ass too.
The Color Purple sings loud
The Blitz Bazawule-directed melodrama, based on the musical stage version of the Alice Walker novel (with a few acknowledgments to Steven Spielberg’s 1985 film adaptation), earned $4.1 million on Friday bringing its domestic cume to $36.4 million following a bonkers bananas $18 million opening day on Christmas. We can expect a $12 million Fri-Sun/$16.2 million Fri-Mon weekend to give the $100 million Fantasia Barrino-led flick a promising $48 million domestic cume.
It’s only half as leggy thus far compared to previous Christmas Day dynamos Fences ($33 million after a $6.9 million Christmas Day wide expansion) and Sherlock Holmes ($117 million after eight days after a still-record $24 million Christmas Day), but that still points toward an $80 million domestic finish, give or take awards season legs. Fearless prediction – I expect The Color Purple to be slightly more competitive in the Oscar race than was frontloaded Christmas 2007 opener Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem.
Meanwhile, slight digression, The Color Purple is just one of a handful of comparatively non-fantastical theatrical releases about comparatively ordinary Americans that is pulling its weight this season. Usually when folks talk about Hollywood needing to make more movies for “ordinary Americans,” it’s (intentionally or not) a potentially racially coded dog whistle which argues for more movies aimed explicitly at politically conservative white folks, more faith-based dramas aimed at white Christians and/or more movies about military service. Such films are not in and of itself a bad thing (Heaven is For Real >>> God’s Not Dead), as Channing Tatum’s empathetic military service dog drama Dog kicked ass in early 2022 alongside Uncharted.
While Hollywood does release its share of “extraordinary struggles of ordinary people” flicks, especially within the horror genre, oftentimes the likes of The Spectacular Now or A Thousand and One barely go wide enough theatrically to play in demographically friendly multiplexes. Far more folks saw David Gordon Green’s Your Highness or Pineapple Express than George Washington or Snow Angels. Moreover, as “ordinary Americans” don’t have to be white dudes (a key clarification, natch), The Color Purple is leading this pack alongside the likes of The Boys in the Boat and The Iron Claw.
Boys in the Boat and Iron Claw impress
Amazon MGM’s The Boys in the Boat is turning into a sleeper hit as the George Clooney-directed Depression-era drama earned another $2.748 million for a $16.4 million five-day total following a $5.7 million Christmas Day debut. That positions the $40 million flick, about a team of underdog college rowing students who (no spoilers) competed at the 1936 Olympics, for a $8.5 million Fri-Sun/$11.5 million Fri-Mon weekend and a $25 million cume heading into 2024.
Whether it could reach Man Called Otto-numbers ($64 million domestic), this is a heartening development as theaters may be counting on Apple and Amazon to fill in the gaps left in 2024 by major studios. It's a sturdy three-star programmer. Pity that there’s no scene where coach Joel Edgerton rallies his team by declaring that they will not row gently down that good stream and that while life was far from a dream they would merrily rage against the dying of the light.
Amid a theatrical ecosystem filled with superheroes, fantastically empowered protagonists or one-man-killing machines like James Bond or John Wick, a heart-wrenching family tragedy like The Iron Claw qualifies as a comparatively relatable studio programmer. The A24 wrestling flick – starring Zac Efron and Jeremy Allen – earned $1.7 million on Friday (-32%) for a likely $4.76 million (-2%) Fri-Sun and $6.34 million Fri-Mon frame. That will give Sean Durkin’s acclaimed programmer, ironically among A24’s most crowdpleasing/mainstream pictures, a $17.7 million domestic cume as it races toward a possible (give-or-take awards season glory) $30 million finish.
Meanwhile, Sony’s Anyone But You is continuing to play like a small-scale holiday release that opens small but legs out well beyond what would be possible at any other time of the year. The Glen Powell/Sydney Sweeney rom-com/wealth porn destination wedding throwback earned $3.3 million (-5%) for a likely $8.4 million Fri-Sun (+40%)/$10.8 million Fri-Mon weekend. The $25 million flick will have $27 million domestic by Monday with plenty of gas left in the can. As far as “saving the romantic comedy,” it’ll already be past Marry Me ($22 million in early 2022) this weekend but will likely end up below Ticket to Paradise ($68 million in late 2022). Fun fact: As recently as early 2019, Taraji P. Henson’s What Men Want was topping $54 million domestically without breaking a sweat.