Box Office: How ‘Godzilla Minus One’ Became a Metaphor for the Final Weekend of 2023

As Aquaman and Captain Marvel stumbled, a deluge of varied films from almost every major studio showed up to keep multiplexes full over the holiday season

The total domestic box office for this final weekend of 2023 will be around $119 million, up 13% from last year’s New Year’s Fri-Sun gross of $104 million and up 20% from the $99 million end-of-year weekend cume for 2021. And yet Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is (even speaking optimistically) playing more like Tron: Legacy ($171 million in 2010) than Avatar: The Way of Water ($684 million) or Spider-Man: No Way Home ($805 million), and even Illumination’s Migration – while succeeding on its own terms, doesn’t look to get anywhere near the over/under $175 million domestic likes of Sing 2 in 2021 and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish in 2022. And yet, even with smaller “big” movies, the overall box office is up for this key weekend. What gives? In short, it’s the movies stupid. 

Think Dunkirk or Godzilla Minus One. Even with the tentpole(s) not quite delivering, everyone else who could show up did show up and rallied together in a triumph of volume. Warner Bros. Discovery offered up three big deal tentpoles in ten days, while Amazon MGM, Lionsgate, Apple, Searchlight, Sony, Comcast, A24 and Neon are doing their part alongside tentpoles from Japan and India. Okay, so Disney-proper and Paramount are kicking back, but Disney took its bruises all throughout 2023 with objectively money-losing tentpoles like Ant-Man 3, Little Mermaid and Indiana Jones 5 that still pulled in objectively decent earnings for multiplexes. Heck, Paw Patrol 2 just topped $200 million globally. After three years of under-fed theaters, the 2023 calendar year ends with a bang because, finally, there’s something at the multiplex for everyone.  

It’s proof, amid relatively strong earnings for films as varied as Wonka to Iron Claw to Anyone But You that the difference between a healthy Covid-era theatrical marketplace and one on the brink of extinction was about merely having enough movies (584 in play amid 2023 versus 440 in 2021 but compared to 854 in 2017) for the theatres. Everyone is justly concerned about another overall box office plunge in 2024, with strike-related delays and a superhero sabbatical leaving theaters hoping that commercially questionable tentpoles like (presumed quality notwithstanding) Furiosa and Twisters overperform. However, this past month has shown that overseas blockbusters, less conventional event films, and (ironically) loss-leader theatrical releases from streaming platforms can fill in the gaps both in terms of underperforming franchise flicks and overall volume. Cue the David Arnold theme... 

Wonka continues its run as the holiday event movie

Wonka continued to be the season’s year-end tentpole event by default, earning another $31.8 million (+31%) over the Fri-Mon holiday frame. That gives the Paul King-directed WBD/Village Roadshow flick a rousing $143 million domestically and $386 million worldwide. As of Tuesday, it’ll pass The Meg 2: The Trench ($390 million) to become Hollywood’s biggest earner since Oppenheimer and Barbie in mid-July. If it continues akin to Jumanji: The Next Level domestically (which had $183 million out of its eventual $320 million domestic cume in the can by the start of 2020), the $125 million Timothee Chalamet-led musical prequel will end with $249 million domestic and (presuming the domestic/overseas split remains 37/63) around $674 million worldwide. It opens in South Korea on January 31, so its race is not remotely yet run. 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom isn’t playing like a Hobbit prequel, but it’s not quite crashing like Star Trek: Nemesis either. The James Wan-directed undersea action fantasy, which all three of my kids enjoyed yesterday, earned $26.3 million (-30%) over the second Fri-Mon frame for an $85 million domestic (past The Marvels, natch) and $259 million worldwide cume. A “normal” rate of descent would give the $205 million DC Films finale around $125 million domestic and $400 million-plus worldwide cume. A holiday-inflated run (think Tron: Legacy) would give it $165 million domestically and $500 million worldwide (including around $60 million in China). Either finish would obviously be a huge comedown from the original Aquaman’s $1.148 billion global cume (with a record $298 million coming from China), it’s almost good for a merely okay superhero movie in 2023.  

Illumination’s Migration is making the most of the holiday break period, earning another $22.3 million Fri-Mon frame (+25%) for a $59.3 million domestic and $100 million worldwide total. It’ll pass Walt Disney’s Wish domestically ($61 million U.S. and $144 million worldwide by Monday) early next week. The original $72 million toon has earned $100 million worldwide. If it legs out like Sing 2 ($162 million from a $90 million end-of-year total), it’ll end with $107 million domestic. This isn’t on par with the first Sing ($271 million in 2016) or the second Sing, but it’s a decent showing for a less razzle-dazzle non-IP animated feature during a time when such things have been struggling theatrically for years. Next up for Universal’s animation stable is DreamWorks’ Kung Fu Panda 4 in March and Illumination’s Despicable Me 4 in July.  

The Blitz Bazawule-directed The Color Purple, based on the musical stage version of the Alice Walker novel (with acknowledgments to Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), earned $17.7 million over the Fri-Mon frame following a near-record $18 million opening day on Christmas. WBD’s $100 million Fantasia Barrino-led flick will have $50 million domestic entering 2024. It’s only half as leggy thus far compared to Fences ($64 million total after a $6.9 million Christmas Day expansion) and Sherlock Holmes (a $209 million finish after a record $24 million Christmas Day), which points toward an $80 million domestic finish, give or take awards season legs. I’d expect The Color Purple to be more competitive at the Oscars versus frontloaded Christmas 2007 opener Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem. Barring a domestic miracle, it will still need decent overseas figures to profit in theatrical alone.  

Anyone But You shows that rom-coms and movie stars aren’t dead yet

Sony’s Anyone But You is continuing to play like a small-scale holiday release (from Sabrina in 1995 to Second Act in 2018) that opens small but legs out well beyond what would be possible at any other time. The rom-com/destination wedding throwback earned $11.5 million (+45%) over the Fri-Mon frame for a $27.6 million domestic (and $33.5 million worldwide) cume. It’s way past Marry Me ($22 million in early 2022) this weekend but will likely end up below Ticket to Paradise ($68 million in late 2022). But this is a good start, especially considering Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell are both new and young “stars because we tell you they are” which doesn’t always translate into ticket sales. Of course, letting them helm a $25 million rom-com and not a $250 million fantasy franchise starter certainly helps.  

Amazon MGM’s The Boys in the Boat earned a $10.7 million Fri-Mon gross l following a $5.7 million Christmas Day debut. That positions the George Clooney-directed $40 million flick, about a team of underdog college rowing students who (no spoilers) competed at the 1936 Olympics, for a $24 million domestic cume heading into 2024. Whether it could reach Man Called Otto-numbers ($64 million domestic), this is a heartening development as theaters may be counting on Apple and Amazon to fill in the gaps left in 2024 by major studios. It's a sturdy three-star programmer, even if there’s no scene where coach Joel Edgerton rallies his team by declaring that they will not row gently into that good night and that while life was far from a dream, they would merrily rage against the dying of the light. 

The Iron Claw -- a true-life wrestling flick/family melodrama starring Zac Efron and Jeremy Allen – earned $6.3 million (+7%) over the Fri-Mon frame. That will give Sean Durkin’s acclaimed heartbreaker, ironically among A24’s most crowdpleasing/mainstream pictures, a $17.7 million domestic cume as it races toward a possible (give-or-take awards season glory) $30 million finish. Not fairing so well is NEON’s release of Ferrari. The well-reviewed (73% fresh and 6.6/10 on Rotten Tomatoes) racing biopic earned just $5.4 million and thus $12 million domestic since its Christmas debut. Michael Mann fandom aside, when Hollywood looks at the modest success of James Mangold’s Ford v Ferrari ($224 million worldwide on a $97 million budget) as a bigger deal than the blow-out triumph of Lorene Scafaria’s Hustlers ($151 million/$21 million), this is what happens. 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes has now earned $161 million domestically and $327 million worldwide. It’ll soon be the leggiest pre-Thanksgiving weekend YA release ever and is already globally behind only – among Lionsgate earners --- Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2 ($830 million), the first four Hunger Games films ($645 million-$865 million), La La Land ($435 million), John Wick 4 ($432 million) and the Now You See Me duology ($351 million in 2013 and $334 million in 2016). Searchlight’s Poor Things expanded to 810 theaters over the holiday weekend and earned $3.14 million (+7%) for a new $11 million domestic cume. The Emma Stone-starring Yorgos Lanthimos sci-fi kneeslapper should be a major Oscar player, so here’s hoping it gets anywhere near The Favourite’s $34 million domestic/$91 million worldwide finish. The Boy and the Heron has now earned $37 million domestically and $130 million while Godzilla Minus One now has $46 million/$68 million.