'IF' Box Office: A Solid $35M Debut Highlights the Trouble With Tracking

Pre-release research is meant to be a tool for studios, not an ironclad prediction.

In a vacuum, a movie like IF, written and directed by John Krasinski and starring Ryan Reynolds and Cailey Fleming, earning $35 million in its domestic debut qualifies as a solid win. Yes, the reviews are mixed-negative (I liked it, warts and all), but IF nabbed an A from CinemaScore and a 4.5/5 on RenTrak alongside a terrific 3.35x weekend multiplier. Yet Paramount found itself on the defensive this weekend. The $10.3 million opening day had us presuming an opening closer to $32 million which was well below the much-discussed $40 million pre-release tracking figures. However, tracking isn’t an exact science or a crystal ball, and $35 million is still pretty damn good for a movie like IF.