Box Office: 'Moana 2' Tracking Puts Disney Sequel On Par With Disney Originals

Like the MCU, expectations for WDA and Pixar toons were skewed by a few late-2010s over-performers. However, if Disney believed that hype, must they now live up to it?

The first bits of long-lead tracking have dropped for Walt Disney’s Moana 2, courtesy of The Quarum and the like. As always, pre-release tracking (especially this far out) is not meant to be an ironclad crystal ball prediction. However, the early word suggests a $100 million Wed-Sun debut, with a Fri-Sun launch of around $75 million.

If that holds, it’ll be the biggest Thanksgiving domestic debut ever (sans inflation). It will also be the second or third biggest Wed-Sun Thanksgiving weekend gross alongside The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($100 million in 2013 following a $158 million Fri-Sun debut) and Frozen II ($125 million in 2019 after a $130 million Fri-Sun launch).

Yes, this would be a “comeback” after Ecanto ($41 million in 2021 with a mere 31-day pre-Disney+ window), Strange World ($19 million in 2022 likewise) and Wish ($32 million in 2023 partially because it was the worst Walt Disney animated movie since Chicken Little in 2005). Assuming Moana 2 doesn’t blow this initial tracking out of the water (see - Inside Out 2, although Quarum pegged Deadpool & Wolverine as a $200 million-plus opener from the start), inflation-adjusted comparisons tell a slightly more complicated story. Frozen II’s $125 million *second weekend* Wed-Sun Thanksgiving gross would be around $147 million adjusted for inflation.

This $75 million Fri-Sun/$100 million Wed-Sun guestimate would essentially be tied, in terms of inflation-adjusted grosses, with the debut of Moana ($82 million in 2016/$101 million adjusted). Ditto the likes of Tangled ($69 million in 2010/$94 million adjusted for inflation), Frozen ($93 million in 2013/$123 million adjusted), The Good Dinosaur ($55 million in 2015/$71 million adjusted), Coco ($73 million in 2017/$88 million adjusted) and Ralph Breaks the Internet ($85 million in 2018/$100 million adjusted).

The upswing would merely put this A-level Disney sequel (Moana is essentially the most-watched movie on Disney+ since the site’s launch in November 2019) on par with what used to be expected for Walt Disney/Pixar animated originals. I’d feel more optimistic if Pixar’s original Elio was tracking at these levels. However, regarding realistic expectations for the summer 2025 release, Elemental’s $495 million global gross only looks “small for a Pixar original” domestically.

Even noting the miraculousness of Elemental’s summer 2023 legs ($154 million domestic from a $30 million debut), that film’s $342 million overseas gross is on par with, inflation notwithstanding, the likes of Monsters Inc. ($289 million international in 2001), The Incredibles ($370 million in 2004), Cars ($218 million in 2006), Wall-E ($303 million in 2008), and Brave ($302 million in 2012). It’s only the domestic figure that was essentially tied with Cars 3 ($153 million in 2017).

Most of Pixar’s 2000-era originals and Walt Disney Animation’s 2010s-era originals finished closer to $600 million than $900 million. Like the MCU, there’s a case to be made that a handful of late 2010s overperformers skewed the expectations for a Disney animated feature. Perhaps the goal for Disney’s toons shouldn’t even be $800 million-plus overperformers like Coco (including an unexpected and now doubly unlikely $189 million in China), Inside Out and Finding Nemo, let alone their billion-dollar sequels or Zootopia (still, at $1.025 billion, the second-biggest wholly original grosser behind Avatar).

If Ralph Breaks the Internet was “fine for a Disney toon sequel” at $529 million in 2018, should Moana 2 deserve the same grace? Maybe, but they sent Soul, Luca and Turning Red to Disney+ and treated them as if they were “regularly released in theaters box office bombs.” They either pretended or deluded themselves into believing that Lightyear was a “go woke go broke” box office casualty and just one gay kiss away from Zootopia-level grosses.

How much credit do they “deserve” if an A-level sequel like Moana 2 performs “only” like an A-level original like Moana? A) This isn’t a $28 million cheapie like Smile 2 opening on par with its $18 million predecessor’s $23 million domestic debut. B) The first film stood out as or was implicitly sold as a rebuttal to, rather than (as arguably seen with Inside Out 2) a capitulation to the YouTube Troll Industrial Complex. When Moana 2 is now the “surefire safe bet” (see also - Lightyear) rather than the “look what we can do” flex (see also - Coco), the expectations differ accordingly. As always, we’ll see.