Can Pixar Recover From the Damage Done By 'Inside Out 2' and 'Lightyear'?

Meanwhile, 'Transformers One' avoided the mistakes made by 'Solo' and 'Furiosa,' while 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' shows that a hit is a hit no matter when it opens.

In tonight’s newsletter -
- Transformers One is a compelling sci-fi actioner on its own merits. (free)
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice again shows why theatrical > streaming. (free)
- Disney seemingly takes the wrong lessons from Lightyear and Inside Out 2. (paid)
— No, Lightyear didn’t bomb because of a gay kiss.
— Pixar’s challenging originals consistently outperform their conventional toons.
— You need less-conventional originals to generate those $1 billion grossing sequels.

Review: Transformers One (2024) is a gratuitous origin story prequel done right.

On paper, Transformers One is another “unrequested prequel origin story of a major franchise character that aims to fill in the blanks while casting a younger “less bankable” actor over the performer who defined the character. However, Transformers One does three things right. First, most importantly, the Paramount/Hasbro production cost around $75 million, as opposed to the $170-$270 million likes of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Lightyear and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Second, it acts like the first Transformers movie ever made, so it’s not peppered with “answers to questions you didn’t ask” and wink-wink references to prior franchise installments. As a by-product, it doesn’t exist to set up much superior film(s) while constantly reminding you that you could be watching those instead. Fun fact: It does not conclude with an end-credits montage of Transformers: The Movie (1986) or Transformers (2007). At least for this franchise, Transformers One *is* the superior film you’d rather be watching.

Yes, the “hype” is real, and Transformers One is very good. Whether it is “the best Transformers movie ever made,” it probably is, even if I still have a soft spot for the gonzo bananas, unapologetic madness of Transformers: Age of Extinction’skitchen sink spectacle and weirdly progressive “immigrants are good, actually” narrative. The good news is that pretty much all of the eye-rolling “Tee-hee, Optimus Prime is now a kid who can’t transform and gets his friends into trouble and just wants more than this province life” stuff is in the first reel or so. Once it gets where it wants to go, with Optimus (Chris Hemsworth, totally fine but entirely unexceptional) and Megatron (Brian Tyree Henry, eventually building up to one of the best voice-over performances of the year) discovering that (no spoilers, but to quote a different Michael Bay movie) “There is no island,” the film commits to its drama to a surprising degree.

It’s not the first movie or show to offer a “retcon” prequel explaining that a main hero and an arch-villain began as buddies before falling out. It’s been a trope of revamping popular fiction at least since Smallville in September of 2001, which proceeded the first staging of Wicked by two years. Yes, Gregory MMaguire’s novel (which was seemingly his first “adult-focused book” after years of kid-targeted stories) was published in 1995, but you get the idea. This might be the best of them, give or take X-Men: First Class, as Erick and Charles were always established as “friends turned enemies.” Wicked (the play, I can’t speak for the book or the upcoming movies) is a strong inspiration, as we have two idealistic folks wanting more from their working poor existence only to discover that the powers that be have been controlling them through fraud and fiction. One of them goes high, and one of them (understandably) goes low.

Josh Cooley’s PLF-worthy action fantasy — penned by Eric Pearson (Thor: Ragnorak) and the duo (Andrew Barrer and Gabriel Ferrari) that wrote Ant-Man and the Wasp - takes its melodrama seriously. It doesn’t undercut its emotional throughline for trailer-friendly gags or “The kids are getting antsy or upset!” digressions. No, it’s not a “grimdark” movie in any fashion, but it respects the tragedy at play and the notion that both, uh, Transformers, are right regarding the horrors inflicted on them and the proper response to that outrage. Whether it comes to the “right” answer, it sits alongside Thor 3, Frozen II and Trolls World Tour as post-2016 tentpoles (of varying quality) asking if societies built upon stolen valor, fictional histories and spilled blood can be made right sans total annihilation. Again, it’s not some towering epic of despair and anguish. It’s merely a rousing sci-fi actioner aimed at smart kids rather than dumb adults.

Assuming Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is good, Paramount is making the best kid-focused biggies in Hollywood. The likes of Clifford, Sonic the Hedgehog, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and (relatively speaking) the Paw Patrol movies are IP plays but prioritize being well-made, thoughtful and entertaining big-screen entertainment *for kids* first and nostalgic adults second. As Pixar can tell you, the attempts to make a quality kid flick will do the job of entertaining the adults. I didn’t enjoy Transformers One because I was thrilled to see the never-told origin story of Optimus Prime and Megatron. I enjoyed Transformers One *despite* being a brand agnostic and giving zero shits about how Optimus and Megatron went from best buds to mortal enemies. By the end, I was shocked at how much I cared when (spoiler) chose to (spoiler). Like A Quiet Place Day One, another Paramount prequel done right, Transformers One strengthens the brand by being a genuinely good movie.

Now, please give me that Dark Knight-inspired Paw Patrol sequel in which a desperate Mayor Humdinger hires the Kitten Catastrophe Crew to take out his canine nemesis! Spoiler: As Goodway explains to a horrified Chase, some animals can’t be bought, bullied, reasoned with, or negotiated with. Cats? They just want to watch the world burn.

“Dogs are dying, Goodway; what would you have me do?”
“Endure, Chase. They’ll hate you for it, but that’s the point of Paw Patrol.”

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is a hit for all seasons.

Yes, I am bemused by the Deadline and New York Times reporting noting that the initial plans for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice were (presumably in the Jason Kilar era) to spend $147 million for an HBO Max movie instead of spending $100 million for a theatrical release that is on track to earn, even with lesser overseas earnings, well over $400 million worldwide. So instead of spending more money for a release that would offer $0.00 in revenue (theatrical or otherwise), Warner Bros. Discovery spent (check notes) less money for a film that is now set to (at least) quadruple its production budget while eventually performing better on Max than it would have if it were a straight-to-streaming original.

David Zaslav might be the devil, but his declarations that streaming films offered no value to WBD and his aggressive pursuit of old-school theatrical revenue and third-party licensing money were well ahead of the curve. At the same time, most of the industry still had its head in the sand. Moreover, folks like Tim Burton, Jenna Ortega, Michael Keaton and Winona Ryder, who presumably took far less upfront money in exchange for box office-specific bonuses and backend payouts, will almost certainly make at least as much as they would have from a fat check paid upfront. That results in a well-liked $100 million flick where (like, frankly, most WBD tentpoles) the money is clearly on the screen.

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice will tomorrow pass Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($193 million), DreamWorks and Universal’s Kung Fu Panda 4 ($194 million) and Legendary and WBD’s Godzilla x Kong ($196 million) million domestic finish of WBD to become the year’s seventh-biggest domestic earner. It will concurrently pass the inflation-adjusted domestic total ($75 million in 1988/$194 million adjusted) of the first Beetlejuice. It should end its run in the realm of Universal’s Twisters ($266 million and wrapping up) and Legendary’sDune Part Two ($282 million) to potentially rank as high as #4 for the year in North America heading into November. No, I am not expecting Warner Bros. Discovery’s Joker: Folie a Deux to crack $250 million domestically.

Like Twisters (which WBD distributed overseas) and frankly, for similar reasons, this domestic-skewing IP cash-in is merely doing “eh” outside of North America. With $77 million overseas thus far, the film has earned $269 million worldwide and should pass $300 million on Friday. Barring a sky-high run in Japan when it opens on September 27, it should end its run with (spitball math alert) around $435 million. It already earned around 448x what its predecessor earned overseas, and the fact that WBD distributes the film globally makes it harder to pin the lesser overseas figures on “WBD overseas marketing bad.” It cost $100 million, not $155 million like Twisters, which means it’s unqualified hit.

In terms of Warner Bros. Discovery’s overall narrative (specifically the movie studio), it affirms that their mediocre summer mainly consisted of holding their biggest guns for pre-summer and post-summer launching pads. Had they released Beetlejuice 2 on Memorial Day weekend and opened that Mad Max Saga in September, we likely would have seen similar performances. However, WBD might have avoided the “bummer summer” headlines as (to little surprise) Kevin Costner’s ambitious Horizon: An American Saga didn’t become the next Dances with Wolves (or even Open Range, relatively speaking). The “theaters are doomed” discourse post-Civil War and pre-Bad Boys 4 might have been avoided, but that’s a “journalists need to do their homework” problem.

WB has a long history of finding underutilized release dates and building them into tentpole launchpads, be it early October with Gravity in 2013 or the post-Labor Day frame with It in 2017. That is one reason I am less pessimistic about Bong Joon-ho’s delightful-looking Mickey 17 opening on January 31, 2025. That alongside a potentially strong performance in Asia amid the Lunar New Year. Presuming Joker 2 doesn’t pull a Secret Life of Pets 2 (on a $200 million budget, alas), WBD should enter November with four (Joker 2, Godzilla x Kong, Beetlejuice 2 and Dune 2) of 2024’s top seven or eight (factoring Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance) biggest domestic earners. Does it matter when they open on the calendar?