'Red One' Box Office - The Rock Rolls An Underwhelming $11 Million Friday

Dwayne Johnson's Christmas-set action comedy is probably going to nab an opening weekend closer to 'Skyscraper' than 'Rampage'.

Amazon MGM Studios’ Red One nabbed a chart-topping $10.9 million Friday. Regarding Dwayne Johnson-led actioners, it’s below Hercules ($11 million in 2014) and Rampage ($11.5 million in 2018) while being just above the $9.2 million opening day of Skyscraper in July of 2018. Even Central Intelligence, a $50 million comedy co-starring Kevin Hart, opened with $12 million in 2016 on its way to a $36 million launch. 9.5 years ago, San Andreas earned a robust $18 million on its opening day on the way to a $55 million domestic weekend debut.

I’m not even discussing the various Fast Saga films or the “opened on a Thursday or Wednesday” likes of G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Moana, let alone the $60 million debut for Jumanji: The Next Level. Regardless of the presumed post-theatrical Prime Video value for the Amazon original and the hoped-for holiday-enhanced legs, Red One - directed by Jake Kasdan and co-starring Chris Evans - would be a disappointing launch.

Yes, the reported $253 million budget was partially because it was initially greenlit as an “everybody gets paid upfront” streaming-only title. However, with an A- from CinemaScore (my wife and middle son thought it was “fine, whatever”) but a 32% critical consensus from Rotten Tomatoes, this would be an underwhelming opening day even if it were a 2010s-era Dwayne Johnson vehicle. Those films A) cost closer to $120 million than $220 million, B) might have expected a cushion in China (where Rampage earned $155 million), and C) could have been a relative success by earning $350-$450 million worldwide.

Amazon choosing to put the film into theaters will procure them 100% more revenue than had they kept it for streaming release. Even the theatrical promotion was arguably as much about raising the film’s profile for its streaming launch while keeping (Dwayne) Johnson and friends happier with Amazon than (Rian) Johnson is with Netflix right now than any “rate of return” revenue. And with Hollywood essentially taking off most of November amid concerns over election day chaos, theaters won’t *mind* having a film that grosses around $28 million in its opening weekend (and accounts for 61% of yesterday’s entire marketplace).

Even if I don’t hold the film’s streaming-inflated budget against it, it’s still — thus far — a whiff (a $28 million overseas debut last weekend via Warner Bros. Discovery isn’t exactly a barnburner) by The Rock’s own standards. Will it recover as the Christmas-centric biggie? Possibly, but the triple whammy of Wicked Part One, Gladiator II and Moana II (co-starring Johnson, natch) means it has to seek shelter until early December. With a presumed $28 million debut, closer to the $28 million launch of Skyscraper than the ≈ $35 million launches of Jumanji 2, Rampage and Central Intelligence, it now *has* to leg out like — for example — Tim Allen’s Santa Clause sequels ($139 million from a $29 million debut in 2002 and $84 million/$19 million in 2006) to safe face.

Do I think it’ll leg out? Yes. Do I think it’ll leg out enough to qualify as “a hit if it were budgeted for theatrical” tentpole? I mean… I’m not exactly in the Christmas miracle spirit at the moment. If the kids show up today and tomorrow and gets it past $30 million for the weekend, Red One will be just the eighth wholly original flick to open above $30 million since 2019. That’s not nothing in terms of the challenges over the last decade and changes in getting audiences to show up for new or even “new to you” theatricals.

Star power used to be why folks showed up until franchises, IP and marquee characters became the primary butts-in-seats motivator. That’s a more complicated conversation, including skyrocketing budgets, one that can wait until tomorrow when we see if it ends up opening at least as well as Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum’s $70 million budgeted The Lost City or Ryan Reynolds and John Krasinski’s $110 million-budgeted IF.

The holdover news, and there isn’t much of it, can wait until tomorrow since I imagine I’ll be doing two posts - one about Red One and the overseas launch of Gladiator II and another with the holdover weekend box office scuttlebutt.

Courtesy of The Numbers…