Thursday Box Office: 'Wicked Part One' Flies to $19M as 'Gladiator 2' Nabs $6.5M

Jon M Chu's musical fantasy will nab one of Universal's biggest non-'Jurassic' openings ever while Ridley Scott's legacy sequel could open bigger than any Paramount picture since 'Top Gun: Maverick'

Jon M. Chu’s Wicked Part One stepped up (2 the streets) with $11 million in Thursday previews. Alongside the $8.2 million in pre-release showings, that’s a “pre-weekend” total of $19.2 million. Anyone who showed up for an “early access” showtime — or whatever the hell they call it this week — for Wicked Part One would have otherwise shown up for a Thursday advance night screening. It’s a preview cume on par with Barbie, which earned $21 million in advance showings on the way to a $162 million domestic debut in July of 2023. Am I expecting likewise here? Not automatically, if only because the 20-year-old Broadway musical on which Wicked Part One is based has a “gotta see it right now, dammit” fanbase closer in spirit to a Phase Three MCU movie (or SnyderVerse-era DC Films flick) than Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie’s thus-far one-and-done blockbuster comedy.

I’ve spent the last year comparing Wicked Part One, starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, as this season’s court-appointed pre-Thanksgiving YA fantasy tentpole; that’s probably the best/safest Thursday-to-weekend comparison. Will it play like a Twilight Saga sequel (around 20% Thursday-to-weekend) or a Hunger Games or Fantastic Beasts installment (closer to 15%)? That suggests a $90-$140 million opening weekend, or $115 million if we split the difference. I’m inclined to argue for the high end (if not even higher), as the reviews are strong, and the buzz is sky-high, with plenty of likely walk-up business as families hold off on the 2.75-hour musical until a more convenient matinee showing. Unlike the later Harry Potter films and other related YA franchises, this newbie-friendly flick requires no homework. It will play to A) Wicked fans, B) Ariana Grande fans and C) those who want the princess/fairy tale tropes regardless of the IP.

The latter would be on par with Frozen II ($130 million in 2019), which Disney moved to this frame to position as both the YA fantasy tentpole *and* the Thanksgiving Disney toon of that year. Amid COVID and strike circumstances, this is the first year since 2018 that we’ve had a *big* YA fantasy epic and the *big* Disney toon duking it out in late November. As I (and others) have been saying since early 2021, theatrical challenges are about supply, not demand. If you give audiences a pre-COVID line-up, including a big-deal YA fantasy flick just before Thanksgiving and a big-deal Disney toon (justice4Encanto) over the holiday, you get pre-COVID grosses. You’ve even got Gladiator II opening this weekend, which — sans election day concerns — likely would have opened in early November (think Jarhead in 2005 and American Gangster in 2007) as the big-deal holiday season kick-off flick.

Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II earned $6.5 million in Thursday previews. That’s pretty good for a 2.25-hour, R-rated action melodrama with a smaller “gotta see it right now” fanbase than an MCU movie or (relatively speaking) a current R-rated action franchise. As such, I’d expect a slightly better Thursday-to-weekend percentage than John Wick: Chapter 4 ($73 million from an $8.9 million Thursday), Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($57 million/$5.9 million) or even The Equalizer 3 ($35 million/$3.8 million). Those comparisons would still give Gladiator II, starring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington, a $55-$60 million debut weekend. Good reviews, solid buzz and “AARP folks aren’t racing out on Thursday night” variables could get this closer to the projected $65 million. I can make that joke because I’m old enough to be more excited for new Taylor Sheridan shows than for new Star Wars shows.

Both films are basking in positive vibes and should A) notch good-to-great opening weekends and B) display impressive legs during the Thanksgiving holiday and straight through to Christmas. Offhand, Wicked Part One could notch one of Universal’s biggest “not a Jurassic World movie” opening weekends ever, which is a milestone currently held by the $146-$147 million Fri-Sun launches of Furious 7 and The Super Mario Bros. Movie and then the $115 million launch of Minions. Gladiator II will probably nab Paramount’s biggest opening since (depending on how it plays out) Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($61 million in 2023) or Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($72 million) and Top Gun: Maverick ($126 million Fri-Sun) in April and May of 2022. We’ll see how this shakes out, but once again, if you (the studios) build it (a viable slate of varied big-scale movies), they (the audience) will come (to the theater). That’s the lesson of #SawPatrol.