Tom Cruise Versus 'Lilo and Stitch' - A Box Office Rematch 23 Years In the Making
'The Final Reckoning' may nab a record Fri-Sun debut for a 'Mission: Impossible' flick, even if that's mostly because 'Dead Reckoning' foolishly opened on a Wednesday.
The Quarum’s six-week-out tracking should be considered an estimated guestimate. That’s not a knock on their scientific process but rather a reminder that pre-release tracking is supposed to be an inside-baseball tool for studios to make choices and adjustments regarding their marketing and promotion strategies. The research and polling were never meant to be a crystal ball or a preemptive declaration of success or failure.
That said, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch and Paramount’s Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning are both tracking for excellent Memorial Day weekend openings. Lilo & Stitch is looking to open on par with the Memorial Day holiday debuts of Aladdin ($90 million Friday-Sunday/$116 million Friday-Monday in 2019) and The Little Mermaid ($96 million/$118 million in 2023). Unless it’s terrible, the opening weekend prospects for the live-action remake (of a film that today’s kids and young adults actually like) will only extend upward.
The Final Reckoning is currently tracking to potentially nab the best Friday-to-Sunday debut of the series, above Mission: Impossible - Fallout’s $62 million debut in July 2018. That Tom Cruise’s eighth Ethan Hunt actioner could nab a franchise-high Fri-Sun debut next month could mostly be due to (beyond inflation) Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning making the critical mistake of opening on a Wednesday.