'Venom 3' Box Office: Why a $22M Friday Is Good Enough For 'The Last Dance'

Sans added value elements and amid a comparative superhero movie decline, Sony's reasonable budget means "okay" is "just fine" for Tom Hardy's Marvel threequel.

Like Halloween Ends on this frame two years ago, Venom: The Last Dance is a trilogy capper whose opening weekend is likely to be pundit-ed about as if it’s a disaster when it is, at worse, a minor disappointment. The third chapter in Tom Hardy’s Eddie Brock adventures topped the domestic box office with $22 million, including $8.5 million in Thursday previews. That compares to $10 million/$30.5 million for Venom in 2018 and $11.6 million/$37 million for Venom: Let There Be Carnage in 2021. Presuming it legs out over the weekend on par with its predecessors, it will earn between $53 million and $57 million for the weekend. However, with (as expected) mixed-negative reviews and a B- from Cinemascore, I would not be shocked if the weekend total were closer to $50 million than $55 million. 

As a general rule, studios don’t like when “part three” opens with 1/3 less than “part one” and 40% below “part two.” However, back in 2018, Sony could have sold an over/under $55 million debut for Venom as a win, so it’s about this unexpectedly successful franchise falling back to earth. The $90 million Venom would earn $214 million domestically. Three years later, the $110 million Venom: Let There Be Carnage offered A+ added value via Woody Harrelson camping it up as Carnage and increased Venom/Eddie rom-com bickering. Even amid COVID variables, it opened with $90 million before also earning $214 million domestically. The $120 million Venom: The Last Dance has nothing to offer beyond being another Venom movie, which explains why (alongside general superhero decline) the opening weekend will be closer to $50 million than $70 million.