Weekend Box Office: 'Wonka' Wins With Delicious $39 Million Debut

'American Fiction' scores a promising debut while 'Poor Things' expands and 'Trolls Band Together' tops 'The Marvels' domestically

William J. Wonka gave moviegoers (and Warner Bros. Discovery) something to sing about this weekend, as Paul King’s Wonka opened with a solid $38.5 million in its domestic debu ($3.3 million in Imax). That’s a solid 2.67x weekend multiplier. With an A- from CinemaScore plus an 84% fresh and 7.3/10 on Rotten Tomatoes, we should expect a leggy year-end run. Just using the example set by Jumanji: The Next Level ($315 million from a $59 million debut on this weekend in 2019) would give Village Roadshow’s $125 million prequel a $206 million domestic finish. That would be – ironically – essentially tied with the raw $206.4 million domestic finish of Tim Burton’s Johnny Depp-starring Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($339 million adjusted for inflation) in 2005. 

For those who haven’t paid attention to this stuff in 25 years -- and missed yesterday’s post -- films released in mid-to-late December tend to have otherwise absurdly long legs. Simply put, films, new and old, get a two-week block amid Christmas and New Year, during which most kids are out of school, and many adults have some paid time off for the holidays. You essentially get two weeks of Mon-Thurs weekday frames that play like glorified weekends. Even the allegedly loathed Hobbit prequels each earned over and above 3.5x their Fri-Sun debuts. There are very few instances of big or small movies *successfully* (sorry, Mars Attacks!) launching in this sandbox and not legging out. A well-received, all-quadrants family flick like Wonka? I’d be shocked at anything under 3.5x. 

When the project was first announced, way back in late 2016, the notion of a prequel/origin story to Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, or really the 1971 film adaptation Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, felt like another case of IP for the sake of IP. Seven years later, the final product arguably is just that, including casting a comparative flavor of the month matinee idol (Timothée Chalamet) and using warm feelings toward the Gene Wilder-led predecessor for at least some of its emotional oomph. To be fair, it is a mostly one-and-done story with few sequel teases and one that doesn’t end on a cliffhanger. Nor does it turn the young would-be candy tycoon into an action hero or a Chosen One superhero. Maybe Hollywood is learning? 

Timothee Chalamet is (kinda-sorta) a movie star

Still, not unlike Sony’s long-gestating Uncharted adaptation, the “perilous on paper” video game adaptation took so damn long to get made (to the point where Mark Wahlberg went from playing the protagonist to playing the mentor) that industry-specific circumstances changed and shifted the odds in its favor. Chalamet wasn’t on anyone’s radar in late 2016, and the year was mostly dominated by DC/Marvel superhero movies and talking animal toons. Both of those sub-genres are in severe decline, to the point where the otherwise surefire Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may stumble partially because it’s a DC superhero sequel. Moreover, the new stardom, to the extent that it exists, is mostly well-known actors and actresses playing marquee characters in IP franchises that play off their onscreen or offscreen personas.  

Robert Pattinson can’t open a movie as “some guy,” but Pattinson as brooding, sexy emo Batman is absolutely a draw. Remember this time last year when pundits were declaring Margot Robbie box office poison because she couldn’t open two indifferently received, adult-skewing, non-IP awards season dramedies (Amsterdam and Babylon)? Yeah... those Barbies looked dumb then and look even dumber now. In this case, Chalamet is an old-school heartthrob with a certain twee indie sensibility. So, casting him as a musical W.I.L.F. -- one who is gee-whiz nice but also eccentric and comparatively naïve -- works as a marketing tool. Throw in surprisingly good reviews and earned goodwill toward King’s Paddington films, and you have a film where the IP wasn’t the only hook.  

The $125 million-budgeted flick has thus far earned $151 million worldwide. The lessons thus far? Don't overspend on the first movie, don’t make a franchise-starter that demands a sequel, don’t turn every IP into a superhero flick, make shrewd star+character casting choices and sell a film that has some appeal even for those indifferent to the IP. Oh, and hide-the-songs marketing notwithstanding, audiences clearly don’t mind a live-action musical. Moreover, it’s another reminder that Warner Bros.’ marketing remains the best at selling less conventional movies into mainstream hits. Think, offhand, Magic Mike, Gravity, American Sniper, It, Crazy Rich Asians, Joker, Elvis and Barbie, the Dream Factory can do more than open superhero movies to top-flight figures. Something to remember if Aquaman 2 drowns next weekend. 

The platform debuts

Amazon MGM released Cord Jefferson’s terrific comedy American Fiction into seven theaters. The Jeffrey Wright vehicle, about a struggling Black author who pens a stereotypically “diverse” memoir designed to appeal to condescending white people – only to watch it become a best-selling smash, earned $227,000 for a per-theater average of $32,411. That’s not a barnburner, but the film is an old-school crowdpleaser – it won the Audience Award at this year’s TIFF – and it works as well as a pinpoint family dramedy as a pop culture critique. It expands into 40 theaters next weekend prior to a wide launch next weekend, and I could see it somewhat catching on. The likely deluge of non-stop ads on and around Amazon pages and products probably won’t hurt. 

Like Poor Things, American Fiction is a year-end awards contender that will likely be discussed mostly in terms of its messaging and politics but is also just really funny and entertaining. Polar opposite, A24 opened Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama Zone of Interest in four theaters for a $124,791 weekend gross. That’s a solid $31,197 per-theater average, however, the coldly unpleasant “banality of evil” flick isn’t exactly a crowd-pleaser so we’ll see how it plays beyond this limited bow. In other A24 news, Dream Scenario is just the second Nicolas Cage star vehicle (his turn as Dracula in Renfield was a supporting role) since Left Behind to earn over $5 million domestically. Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla is also the rare platformer in Covid-era times to pass $20 million.

The holdover news

Searchlight Studios’ Poor Things expanded to 82 theaters on weekend two – it's also going wide on the 22nd. The delightfully madcap Emma Stone/Mark Ruffalo/Willem Dafoe sci-fi comedy earned another $1.3 million for a per-theater average of $15,500. We’ll see if audiences show up for what is at least as much of a mainstream picture as Yorgos Lanthimos’s The Favourite, which earned $95 million globally in 2017. Fingers crossed for two terrific major studio comedies that shouldn’t be treated like homework just because they opened amid awards season. Let’s hope they perform better than The Holdovers, which has earned $17 million thus far. This isn’t 2004, and general audiences aren’t showing up for an Alexander Payne-directed, Paul Giamatti-starring character comedy, no matter how heartwarming.

Meanwhile, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes earned $5.8 million (-34%) in its fifth weekend (larger than the $5.6 million fifth weekend for Mockingjay Part 2 in 2015) for a $145 million domestic cume. Again, the Rachel Zegler vehicle is showing the best legs ever (smaller grosses notwithstanding) for a big pre-Thanksgiving YA title, including Frozen II. The $100 million prequel has earned around $290 million globally, passing Expendables and Divergent. The Boy and the Heron fell 61% for a $5.1 million (-61%) second weekend and a $23 million ten-day total. The GKids release is still the biggest original anime feature ever in unadjusted domestic earnings. Toho International’s Godzilla Minus One earned $4.88 million (-43%) third weekend for a kaiju-sized $34.3 million 17-day total.

DreamWorks and Universal’s Trolls Band Together earned $4 million (-34%) in weekend five for an $88.6 million domestic cume, placing it above The Marvels ($84 million). Disney’s Wish has earned just $126 million worldwide, including just $54.3 million domestic cume. Apple and Sony’s Napoleon has earned $57 million domestically and $188 million worldwide. Fair or not, Napoleon and Killers of the Flower Moon weren’t designed to be conventionally profitable in the theatrical run (although Sony and Killers distributors Paramount did fine). Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce earned $1.95 million (-64%) in weekend three for a $30 million total. It’s still a solid investment for AMC, but it will earn less total in North America than the $38 million earned by Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour on its first day.