‘Captain America 4' Box Office Struggles Debunk Years Of Online MCU Discourse
Remember when the Internet swore that Phase Four was struggling, fans were waiting for everything to become more connected and audiences were sick of the multiverse?
By default, Captain America: Brave New World topped the Friday box office with $7.2 million yesterday. That’s an 82% drop from its $40 million opening day (counting, as always, Thursday previews), which is a Friday-to-Friday drop on par with Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (-81% coming off an $81 million opening day, natch) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (-82% from a $46 million Friday on this same post-holiday frame in 2023). Once upon a time, falling 66%-69% in the second weekend was considered an unmitigated disaster reserved for the likes of Green Lantern and Fantastic Four. Disney may try to “spin” the notion that Captain America 4 “only” dropped by 68% in its second weekend, which is at least better than Ant-Man 3 (-70%), Morbius (-74% from a $39 million debut in 2022) and The Marvels (-78% from a $48 million launch in 2023).
Disney’s latest MCU actioner should earn $28 million (-68%) on weekend two for a $141 million ten-day total. Noting an identical release window as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, but with far less tentpole competition, we’re likely looking at a domestic finish between $181 million and (idealistic best-case-scenario if it legs out like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) $222 million. Splitting the difference, think a 1.46x “end of day ten-to-final” multiplier on par with Thor: Love and Thunder (which also had essentially no all-quadrant competition from July to late October in 2022), gives it $206 million, essentially tied with Thor: The Dark World (back in 2013 from an $81 million debut). However, the sheer size of the drop is yet another example of how the Marvel Cinematic Universe is A) becoming less of a general audience tentpole franchise and B) the MCU is struggling most with their “mythology episodes.”