'Joker 2' Box Office: Why Sequels Bomb

Had 'Joker: Folie à Deux' not cost triple its predecessor, a not-unexpected commercial downturn would still have been a potentially acceptable commercial result.

Joker: Folie a Dex earned $20 million on Friday, alongside poor reviews and a D+ from CinemaScore. Considering the piss-poor reception and that it is a slow-burn R-rated, action-lite drama (so no kid-powered matinee boosts), we are looking at an opening weekend of around $47 million. That would be A) 52% less than Joker’s $96 million debut in October 2019 and B) ironically essentially tied with The Marvels ($46 million from a $21 million Friday) in November 2023. There will be much handwringing about what went wrong, justifiably so, considering Joker earned $335 million domestically and $1.08 billion worldwide while winning four Oscars. However, the key culprit is the budget. Joker cost $63 million and was sold as a model of against-the-grain comic book storytelling *and* budgeting. It was the most rate-of-return profitable big-deal Marvel/DC movie ever. Joker 2 cost a reported $190 million-$200 million, so this massive decline qualifies as an enormous problem. 

In plenty of circumstances, sequels have earned far less than their predecessors. Before the slew of established fantasy franchises and superhero sagas of the 2000s, a sequel was expected to cost more but earn less. Putting aside decades-later installments or reboots, the first Star Wars, Superman, Batman, Jurassic Park and Halloween were the top-grossing entries in their respective franchises. Ditto Back to the Future, Ghostbusters, The Godfather, Planet of the Apes and (domestically) Men in Black, Indiana Jones and Spider-Man. There were breakout sequel exceptions, like Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home, Lethal Weapon 2, Rocky IV, Terminator 2: Judgment Day and Rambo: First Blood Part II, but they were just that. That was okay because (for example) a budget increase from $25 million for Ghostbusters (which earned $283 million globally in 1984) to $40 million on Ghostbusters II meant that its “mere” $215 million global cume in 1989 was still profitable.  

Why do sequels to even well-liked and well-received films flop or earn far less than their predecessors? There are four key reasons, three of which apply to Joker 2, and frankly, all of which might have been mitigated sans one key element.