'Wonka' Box Office: Timothée Chalamet's Candy Man (Not That One) Sings to $14 Million Friday

'The Boy and the Heron' and 'Renascence: A Film By Beyonce' dropped hard as 'Hunger Games' and 'Godzilla Minus One' held firm

‘Wonka,’ courtesy of Warner Bros. Discovery and Village Roadshow

Another cinematic candy man said “Hello!” to the flesh, as one snazzily-dressed marquee character offered sweets to the sweet, with audiences happily agreeing to be his victim. Sorry… I’ll stop (for now).

Warner Bros. Discovery and Village Roadshow’s Wonka topped the Friday box office with $14.4 million. That positions the film, presuming legs akin to Jumanji: The Next Level ($59 million from a $20 million Friday on this frame in 2019), for a $42.5 million opening weekend. That’s an optimistic 2.95x weekend multiplier since I must imagine casually curious families are just waiting until Saturday and Sunday matinees. However, WBD should not mourn if the Paul King-directed film ends up closer to $35 million by Sunday night. With strong reviews (84% fresh and 7.3/10 on Rotten Tomatoes), an A- from CinemaScore (including an A+ from women under 18), and a general all-audiences appeal (it played 51% female and 57% under-35), the $125 million-budgeted film, which should have around $125 million worldwide by Sunday night, is almost certain to leg out over the next month amid the holiday season.  

For those who came in (very) late, films released in mid-to-late December tend to have crazy-long legs. The simple explanation is that you get a two-week block, amid Christmas and New Year, during which most kids are out of school, and many adults are off work. Hence you get two weeks of Mon-Thurs weekday frames that play like glorified weekends. From Jumanji ($101 million from an $11 million debut in 1995) to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish ($185.5 million from a $26 million Wed-Sun Christmas debut in 2022), films big (Aquaman legging to $335 million from a $72 million debut in 2018) and small (Sisters earning $87 million from a $13.9 million launch in 2015) generally trade smaller opening weekends for longer legs.  Even those Hobbit prequels earned over and above 3.5x their Fri-Sun debuts.

There are very few instances of big movies *successfully* (sorry, Star Trek Nemesis) launching in this sandbox and not legging out. The only examples are – online chatter notwithstanding -- the last two Star Wars sequels ($620 million from a $220 million debut and $515 million from a $177 million launch). Both nabbed huge for December opening weekends. Besides, their respective 2.9x multipliers would be great at any other time of the year. The only question is whether Wonka, which to its credit is a mostly stand-alone movie that doesn’t turn Wonka into a superhero or end on a cliffhanger, is the season’s runner-up biggie (think Tomorrow Never Dies, Ocean’s 11, the Jumanji sequels, the two Sing movies or Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse) or the main event if Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom drowns next weekend. 

This looked like a doomed “IP for the sake of IP” movie when first announced in late 2016. Granted, the odds have since somewhat shifted in its favor, with superhero movies on the decline and talking animal toons no longer automatic box office paydirt, but credit where credit is due. The “hide the songs” trailers aside, WBD sold the hell out of this one. For what it’s worth, it’s also the first tentpole since Barbie and Oppenheimer (just before SAG-AFTRA went on a four-month strike) to get a conventional promotional campaign — and the consensus is generally positive. Timothée Chalamet is both an old-school heartthrob and a newfangled movie star in that he’s a draw when playing a marquee character (like Tom Hardy *as* Venom or Lady Gaga *as* Patrizia Reggiani) that plays into or ironically against their onscreen/offscreen persona.

This is another example, without getting too excited about one day of solid domestic box office, of WB’s marketing having an unmatched record of turning (comparatively) unconventional features into (relative) mass-audience blockbusters. Think, at least for the last 11 years, Magic Mike, Gravity, American Sniper, It, Crazy Rich Asians, Joker, Dune, Elvis and Barbie. Their ups and downs with the DC Comics franchise have frankly overshadowed their theatrical franchise triumphs — and stand-alone wins like Ready Player One or Dunkirk — nearly everywhere else. We’ll see if Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom weathers the storm (most of the bad buzz is thus far entirely unrelated to the movie itself), but that WBD can make buzzy hits out of Barbie, Wonka or (fingers-crossed) The Color Purple should be just as important as whether they can make a DC cinematic universe.

Meanwhile, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes earned $1.65 million (-39%) for a likely $6.14 million (-34%) fourth weekend and $145 million domestic cume. Again, the best legs ever (smaller grosses notwithstanding) for a big pre-Thanksgiving YA title, including Frozen II. The Boy and the Heron fell 75% for a $1.4 million Friday, The GKids release will still earn $5.1 million (-61%) for a $23 million ten-day total, making it the biggest original anime feature ever in unadjusted domestic earnings. Toho International’s Godzilla Minus One earned $1.34 million (-39%) on Friday for a likely $5.1 million (-41%) third weekend and boffo $35 million 17-day total. At this rate, it might top $50 million by the end. Finally, Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce earned $553,000 (-66%) on Friday for a likely $1.95 million (-64%) weekend and $30 million 17-day total.