'Dune 2' Tops Box Office With $32.2M Friday

The Timothée Chalamet/Zendaya sci-fi sequel brought the spice to a starving theatrical industry for a likely over/under $75 million opening weekend

Say it with me now: Warner Bros. is more than Batman and Harry Potter. Also, Timothée Chalamet as an initially idealistic young man who becomes a successful champion of the underdog before being corrupted by power and idolization (Wonka 2 is gonna be *dark*), is apparently as surefire bankable as “Denzel Washington as Righteous Revenger Man.” We know who to cast if Universal ever reboots The Scorpion King.

Jokes aside, WBD and Legendary’s Denis Villeneive-directed Dune Part Two brought the Imax and Dolby-flavored spice yesterday with a strong $32.2 million Friday. Barring extreme frontloading or unusually strong weekend legs, we’re likely looking at an opening weekend between $73 million and $82 million. Let’s call it $77 million — on par with (inflation aside) the first Avatar — and pop the champagne. That Friday figure includes $12 million in Thursday preview earnings (which included around $2 million from Sunday Imax sneaks), giving the film a $20.2 million “raw Friday.”

That compares favorably to the $17.5 million Friday (with $5.1 million in Thursday showings) of the first Dune in October 2021. While the sequel was more Thursday-to-Friday frontloaded, A) it’s a sequel and B) there was more frothing anticipation and fewer Covid or Project Popcorn variables complicating the situation. With mostly rave reviews (94% fresh and 8.5/10 on Rotten Tomatoes) and an A from CinemaScore (compared to an A- for the first Dune), there’s nothing to complain about. Unless you were so dead-set on Dune 2 topping $100 million that you want to spin $75 million-plus as a disappointment, but don’t be that person.

Yes, the opening is “merely” on par with the R-rated John Wick: Chapter 4, which earned $73 million in mid-March of 2023 amid much less free hype and within a jam-packed month. Yes, this is below the $80 million opening of Five Nights at Freddy’s, which was available concurrently on Peacock (Paul Atreides < Freddy Fazbear). Yes, we have a global blockbuster that’s a clear metaphor for the perils Middle Eastern nations face from western colonialism yet features no major MENA actors opening as Palestinian civilians are being massacred by a power-mad (and politically imperiled) right-wing head of state cosplaying a post-9/11 George W. Bush who is using “never again” to justify “as we speak” and…

Oh, shit… sorry… different conversation. Long live the fighters?

Those first two examples merely point out that at least on opening weekend, Dune Part Two was not the second coming of Star Wars or Lord of the Rings. The idea that Dune would have opened like, well, Dune Part Two absent Project Popcorn never made sense when Godzilla Vs. Kong and The Conjuring 3 earned as-expected (or better) box office despite also being on HBO Max in 2021. Likewise, while exceptionally long legs are possible, legs on par with The Batman ($370 million from a $133 million debut in March of 2022 with zero competition) get Dune to domestic earnings on par with, yes, Wonka.

That’s spectacular for Dune Part Two, but it’s a reminder that “$1 billion worldwide!” should not be a catch-all generic statement for “this upcoming movie will be a big global box office hit.” That Dune was held up as a game-changing hit despite earning $108 million domestically (on par with The Flash) and $293 million overseas (on par with The Golden Compass) on a $165 million budget felt like gaslighting amid strong runs for Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($505 million worldwide) and No Time to Die ($774 million global) that same month.

That Dune Part Two is opening 87% better makes me retroactively less grouchy about that. Dune Part Two is a breakout sequel for at least one day (and presumably at least one weekend). The strong reviews, six Oscar wins and positive vibes for the first Dune translated into a much larger opening weekend for this follow-up. They can’t all double the opening (as we saw with John Wick 2), but even Captain America: The Winter Soldier “only” opened 44% larger than Captain America: The First Avenger despite the post-Avengers MCU boost.

This was merely another Dune flick, with obvious “added value” in the form of media-friendly youngsters like Zendaya and Florence Pugh alongside A) the promise of more action and spectacle amid a currently tentpole-free theatrical ecosystem and B) whatever boost Chalamet got from the $615 million-grossing Wonka last December. Offhand, the film had all five elements required for an adult-skewing breakout theatrical, namely an all-star ensemble cast, a marquee director, an easy-to-explain premise (Hamlet with Game of Thrones politics on a Star Wars planet), rave reviews and the promise of cinematic escapism.

Yes, that we’re “only” talking about a $77 million debut and not, say, a $169 million debut means that the online hype wasn’t one-to-one with general audience interest. That’s a media discourse problem, not a Dune 2 problem. Make no mistake, this is an “everything went right” opening weekend for the $190 million sci-fi sequel.

With little all-quadrant tentpole competition (Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters: The Frozen Empire and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should be big while also comparatively skewing younger) for the near future, I’d be a little surprised to see it come in under $200 million domestic. You’ll also have folks (as we saw with Avatar: The Way of Water) willing to wait until after the opening weekend for that better seat in a more convenient showing at their local Imax or Dolby auditorium.

Does that mean that the legs will be undercut in weekend four when it loses many/most of those PLFs to Ghostbusters: The Frozen Empire? Perhaps, but that’s a day-22 problem to worry about.

Of note, the film played 59% male and a solid 57% under 35, including 24% under 25. So, yes, an adaptation of a very old (and oft-copied) sci-fi epic proved of the moment popular with younger audiences and not just with nostalgic boomers. That’s very promising and again points toward decent post-debut legs. It’s also another example of how, when they are on their game, Warner Bros. (Discovery or otherwise) is the best in the business at turning less-conventional tentpoles into pure smash hits.

From Magic Mike to American Sniper to It to Crazy Rich Asians to Joker to Elvis to Barbie (among many others), WB has a long-underrated knack for turning all (A Star Is Born) kinds (Gravity) of (Dunkirk) movies (Wonka) into relative event flicks. If this continues with the likes of Furiosa, Horizon and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Superman Legacy may fly into theaters in July of 2025 only to realize that Warner Bros. has saved itself. I’m sure the Blue Boy Scout (and James Gunn) would love that.