Dastardly British Bear Declares War on Beloved American Superhero, Clash of Nations Inevitable At Global Box Office!

Sony's date change for the family-friendly sequel is another sign that Hollywood thinks that Marvel is at least weak enough to justify concurrent tentpole competition.

Paddington in Peru has earned $30 million since opening exclusively in the United Kingdom courtesy of Studio Canal. As with the first two “Passion of the Paddington” melodramas, Studio Canal’s Paddington 3: The War of All Fur is getting a run overseas before its domestic debut. But Sony has pushed that domestic release back just a touch, in a manner that kicked off PTSD flashbacks over them shifting Peter Rabbit: The Runaway a dozen times before settling on June of 2021. God help me; whenever I get an email from Sony noting a date change, I still think for half a second that 2 Peter 2 Rabbit is again being moved nearer or farther (wherever you-ther).

Anyway, Paddington in Peru, helmed not by Paul King but by Dougal Wilson, will no longer open on MLK weekend as initially intended. It’s being slotted for February 14. That is both Valentine’s Day — maybe those Shape of Water jokes from early 2018 weren’t all in vain — and the start of President’s Day weekend. It’s also where Disney is set to debut Captain America: Brave New World. Gentlemen (and ladies), start your memes.

Thus far, “Captain Paddington: Brave New Peru” seems to be winning. Picturing the kind-hearted pacifistic bear in a military situation is funny and conjures up a legit kid-friendly remake of Hacksaw Ridge. Also, “New” and “Peru” make a nice sing-song closing. Sony might argue that it’s as much about not conflicting with the potentially leggy year-end holiday holdovers — insert your Kraven = Titanic joke HERE — which is valid.

If Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King break out and leg out, there’s no reason to drop another buzzy family title so soon into the mix. Besides, opening in mid-January would put it weeks away from DreamWorks’ Dogman movie. Dropping it in mid-February makes it the last big family title until Disney’s live-action Snow White film on March 21. And yet, that Paddington 3, which deals with the horrific fallout in Sheffield, Northern England after the (Ben) Whishaw Pact ignites apocalyptic nuclear armage… oh wait, sorry, wrong movie and wrong spelling…

Anyway, Marvel Studios’ Captain America 4 now has a colonist competitor! No, I don’t think Paddington 3 will open bigger or gross more than the Anthony Mackie/Harrison Ford action sequel, except maybe in the UK, where Steve Rogers has consistently gotten his ass kicked by Paddington and Bridget Jones. If the Brits had a real sense of humor, they’d super-duper fast-track Johnny English: Legacies for February. That Sony is willing to drop a well-liked IP title alongside a Marvel sequel is a sign that Hollywood thinks — or hopes — that the MCU is now “weak” enough to no longer be an all-consuming tentpole. Hence, I don’t expect Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy to shift its February 14 (overseas theatrical) and February 13 (stateside on Peacock, because the threequel bombed domestically in 2016)) release date.

As one wise man once said, if you could make God bleed, people would cease to believe in Him. After the relative flame-outs of Eternals, The Marvels and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, there is blood in the water, and the sharks are coming. Yes, they can still pull top-tier bucks from huge-unto-themselves franchises (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3) and past-tense 2010s nostalgia (Doctor Strange 2, Deadpool & Wolverine), but we don’t yet know the commercial new normal for a “new” MCU movie. Does this mean Captain America 4, which is the first installment *starring* Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson as the title character, is doomed to play, at best, like an MCU equivalent of Live and Let Die or The Bourne Legacy?

Not automatically. However, it has to deliver more than “Winter Soldier by way of Clear and Present Danger” nostalgia. Moreover, non-Avengers Marvel movies might be becoming closer to “fans only” affairs. If the fan ceiling is big enough (think Hunger Games and Twilight), that would be great. There’s a big difference between Captain America: Civil War cruising to $1.1 billion globally and serving as the all-purpose family tentpole *and* date night choice, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier earning $715 million worldwide, while Rio 2 topped $500 million and even Noah pulled $359 million in that same month.

The optimistic scenario isn’t that MCU newbies like Brave New World and Fantastic Four are hoping to merely equal Shang-Chi ($435 million in 2021) level grosses, but rather that upcoming Marvel movies can do their thing while leaving room for other films big and small. That’s partially why Universal slotted their big Steven Spielberg-directed tentpole in mid-May 2026, between Avengers: Doomsday and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu. On a case-by-case basis, the MCU follow-ups and the Star Wars films could become closer to those YA fantasy biggies that were so fan-driven that the rest of the moviegoing populace acted like they didn’t exist. This can be “thing good.”

Recall November and December of 2012 when The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II earned an ice-shattering and head-ripping $829 million worldwide. Since it was such a “for the devoted fanbase” affair, there was plenty of space for the $1.1 billion-grossing Skyfall, the $600 million-grossing Life of Pi and the $273 million-grossing Lincoln. Ditto the fan-driven Hobbit trilogy, the first of which cracked $1 billion, while Les Miserables and Django Unchained topped $400 million globally. Even Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher legged out to $218 million on a $60 million budget.

Suppose Captain America 4 is at least as good as, I dunno, For Your Eyes Only or Octopussy and (possible COVID, strike-delays and reshoot-inflated budget aside) earns “just” $700 million. Meanwhile, presume that Paddington 3 still pulls a par-for-the-course $225-$255 million worldwide. That would be precisely the kind of “everybody wins” scenario needed by both the theatrical industry and pop culture overall. Will online/critical love for Paddington 2 — and possible post-theatrical discovery — translate into real-world breakout sequel potential for Paddington in Peru? Will Antonio Banderas A) get more to do here than in Uncharted and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and B) perhaps win the Oscar he was denied for Sponge Out of Water?

But the real question is whether Paddington 3 versus Captain America 4 will be a #YouCanSeeThemBoth success. Or will it be, to paraphrase the best movie musical of the 1980s, a collision between two rival nations — in a primitive clash venting years of frustration? Either way, there will be so much at stake that it might seem like nothing less than freedom itself is up against the ropes. Although, after January 20, that might be very true in a non-fiction sense.

I know we broke off from the crown almost 250 years ago, but if Johnny English can find time between chugging vodka martinis (to silence the screams of all the men he’s killed) and finding forgiveness in the arms of willing women (for all the dead ones he failed to protect) and lend us Yanks a hand… Anyway, Captain America: Brave New World versus Paddington In Peru. To quote everyone’s favorite deleted line from everyone’s favorite 2000s-era horror mashup, place your bets.