Weekend Box Office: 'Wonka' Tops 'Night Swim' With $14M as 'Anyone But You' Rallies

'Aquaman 2' is showing overseas muscle while 'Trolls 3' passes $100 million domestic

While next weekend will be, as per usual for MLK weekend, jam-packed with new wide releases (Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, The Book of Clarence and Pixar’s Soul), the first weekend of 2024 is highlighted by – again per usual – a grindhouse/schlocky horror flick.  

A trend unofficially started in 2005 with Michael Keaton’s White Noise, the first official weekend of the new year has been gifted horror films good (Hostel, Daybreakers, Underworld: Blood Wars, Insidious: The Last Key, Escape Room and M3gan) and not-so-good (White Noise, One Missed Call, The Unborn, Season of the Witch, The Devil Inside, Texas Chainsaw 3-D, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, The Woman in Black 2, The Forrest and The Grudge). Alas, Night Swim falls into the latter category, decent acting, some earned tension and a few haunting shots of underwater peril notwithstanding.  

Still, horror remains the most reliable theatrical genre in town. Bryce McGuire’s Night Swim, a $15 million Blumhouse/Atomic Monster production that should have been called Death Pool: The Pool That Drowns, earned $12 million this weekend. 

Along with the notion that horror remains a theater-worthy communal viewing experience and that the concept-driven genre doesn’t demand large budgets, credit an active and often celebratory media ecosystem (which still holds horror flicks to account when they don’t measure up) that creates awareness and interest in upcoming films. Credit that active fanbase which sees horror films in theaters which in turn means they become aware and interested in upcoming horror films via seeing the trailers in a theater. Credit the fact that – unlike romance or comedy -- you generally can’t get full-bore horror tropes in other all-quadrant genres. The poorly reviewed (27% on Rotten Tomatoes) and indifferently received (a C from CinemaScore) fright flick isn’t long for this world, but it did its job. 

The top movie of the weekend was Warner Bros. Discovery’s Wonka, which earned another $14.4 million (-36%) on weekend four for a $164 million domestic cume. That puts it just past The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes to make it the biggest domestic earner since Oppenheimer and Barbie last July.  

It’s holding better than Jumanji: The Next Level which had 4x its $59 million debut after its fourth weekend. Wonka is at 4.2x and holding firm, which means it’s almost certain to pass $200 million domestic (if not $225 million) by the end. Its global total is a rousing $465 million, putting it within spitting distance of – sans inflation -- Tim Burton’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($475 million in 2005). Offhand, the $125 million Timothee Chalamet-led musical prequel should end with around $560 million global plus whatever it earns in South Korea (January 31).  

Meanwhile, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom earned $10.6 million (-42%) to cross the $100 million mark on day 17. It’ll pass The Flash ($108 million) next weekend to become, by default, the biggest DC Films flick of 2023. It has already done so globally with a new $335 million global cume (ironically now tied with the first Aquaman’s $335 million domestic cume). That includes $54 million in China, way below the first film’s $298 million cume but halfway decent by post-2019 standards for a Hollywood flick in China.  

The decent holds are mostly due to the year-end “kids and grown-ups are off of school and/or off work for the holidays” period and its existence as the only all-quadrant mega-budget fantasy action tentpole in town. Still, with a likely $415 million global finish, it’ll A) pass the first Dune and B) ironically be the top-earning DC Films flick since Aquaman ($1.15 billion in 2018) and the top-earning DC anything since The Batman ($770 million in 2022).  

Universal and Illumination’s Migration earned another $10.25 million (-40%) over the weekend for a $77.8 million 17-day total. That’s a better third-weekend hold than Sing 2 (-42%) but not as strong as Puss in Boots: The Last Wish’s shockingly long legs (-19%) last year. It should still join Universal and DreamWorks’ Trolls Band Together in the $100 million-plus club. The film opened in five overseas markets and earned another $15 million outside of North America, pushing the $72 million budgeted toon’s global cume to $150.7 million. Offhand, it should earn around $215 million worldwide plus whatever it gets from South Korea (January 10), the UK (February 2), Ireland (February 2), and Japan (March 15). It’s no Sing-sized sensation, but it’s a solid little hit.  

The “Holy shit!” news of the weekend belongs to Sony’s Anyone But You. The Glen Powell/Sydney Sweeney rom-com earned $9.5 million (+9%) in weekend three for a $43.7 million 17-day total. The $25 million, R-rated flick – which has earned $59 million worldwide -- is the first wide release I can find offhand that earned more money in its third weekend than it did in its first or second frames. This implies that grown-ups are hiring babysitters and playing catch-up (38% 25-44) while teens and young adults (37% 18-24) are potentially “discovering” the theatrical rom-com (yes, it’s apparently earning buzz on TikTok). There are plenty of examples of smaller films that earned 10x their opening weekends over the holidays – going back to Sabrina in 1995 and Mouse Hunt in 1997 – but it’s still nice to see.  

While I wouldn’t argue that the film is “saving” the romantic comedy, as we had a few commercially strong examples (Crazy Rich Asians, Last Christmas, What Men Want, Yesterday, Ticket to Paradise, etc.) in recent years even while Netflix has tried to make the genre their own. However, the notion that Sony and friends took two would-be new movie stars (Powell and Sydney) and made a $25 million rom-com predicated on their heartthrob status instead of having them headline a $150 million, sex-less fantasy action franchise flick does seem to count as progress. Remember, Tom Cruise became a movie star from Risky Business, not Top Gun.  

Amazon MGM’s The Boys in the Boat earned $6.02 million (-32%) for a $33.9 million cume. Not a blow-out for this $40 million, George Clooney-directed underdog sports flick, but the math is a little different for these “marketing for the streaming launch” theatrical releases. Considering the lack of Hollywood theatrical releases this year, theaters will happily get anything from a streamer. After all, a large popcorn purchased during The Boys in the Boat or Napoleon costs the same as one purchased during Wonka or Migration.  

Alas, Warner Bros. Discovery’s The Color Purple is falling fast, earning $4.765 million (-59%) over the weekend for a $54.6 million 14-day cume after a near-record $18 million Christmas Day launch. It’s legging like not Fences or Sherlock Holmes but rather like Alien vs. Predator: Requiem and heading toward a likely $70 million domestic finish unless it ends up in the Oscar race. That would be fine, and it’s a higher domestic total than the other “big movies for adults” offerings in play now (including Napoleon and Killers of the Flower Moon), but it cost $100 million with questionable overseas prospects. Still, if Hollywood can keep rolling the dice on films like Ferrari...  

A24’s The Iron Claw will earn $4.5 million (-3%) on weekend three for a terrific $24.8 million domestic cume, while NEON’s Ferrari will earn $2.5 million (-36%) for a miserable $16 million domestic cume. NEON is only on the hook for domestic expenses related to the $90 million flick, but this still means Michael Mann hasn’t had a genuine “profitable in theaters” hit since Tom Cruise’s Collateral 20 years ago.  

Searchlight’s Poor Things earned $2 million (-12%) in 750 theaters for a $14.2 million cume. Hopefully, this delightful Emma Stone-starring comedy will stick around amid its likely inclusion in the Oscar race. Ditto Amazon MGM’s American Fiction as the Jeffrey Wright vehicle earns $1.04 million (+153% as it expands to 114 theaters) for a $3 million cume. Cord Jefferson’s terrific (and genuinely funny) family melodrama/pop culture satire expands to 600 theaters over MLK weekend.