Listen now | ‘Sinners’ second-weekend discourse, a strong debut for ‘The Accountant 2’ and a pop culture reclamation for ‘Revenge of the Sith,’ the best of the “prequels”
Okay, here’s my boring prediction for the highest-grossing movies of the summer domestically.
1. Jurassic World: Rebirth ($350m-$400m): I think this entry will make about as much as the last one, or only a little less. This franchise has been pretty consistent for the last two movies.
2. The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($325m-$350m): If this is a good, fun, feel-good MCU movie that works for audiences who haven’t seen any of the prior Fantastic Four movies, then it could join a lot of MCU films that have made around this domestic total (Guardians of the Galaxy 1, Spider-Man Homecoming, Thor: Ragnarok and Love and Thunder).
3. Superman ($325m-$350m): Speaking of that other James Gunn superhero franchise starter, this Superman reboot could make a little more than Man of Steel due to being a more fun, rewatchable adventure. And we know from Top Gun: Maverick and Barbie that being a fun summer movie helps rewatchability.
4. Lilo and Stitch ($300m-$325m): I can see this remake making about as much as the remakes for The Little Mermaid and Aladdin, especially if it has a similar Memorial Day opening weekend.
5. How to Train Your Dragon ($250m-$300m): As for the other remake of a DuBlois/ Sanders-directed movie, I don’t think it will be quite as popular, but curiosity will still help it make more than all of the three animated films.
6. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning ($220m-$240m): I predict this entry will probably make a little more than Fallout, but not that much higher, as it’ll follow a similar box office trajectory.
7. Thunderbolts ($210m-$240m): After this film likely opens to about $80m, it’ll hopefully have good legs for a Multiverse Saga MCU film, since it has three weeks before there’s any other PG-13 action movie in the marketplace.
And those are my rough range predictions for the expected big heavy hitters, and while I don’t know about the rest, I hope the summer’s two biggest original movies, Elio and F1, can amass $50m+ opening weekends and then leg out to at least $150m domestically, assuming they’re good and crowd-pleasing. Worldwide, I predict Jurassic World: Rebirth will make at least $800m-$900m, and anything more than that will depend on how China feels about playing American exports. If The Fantastic Four: First Steps is good, it could make $700m-$800m, and so could Superman, but both films could settle for $600-$700m, which would at least be better than Thunderbolts, as it will likely end up with $500m-$600m. Both of the live-action remakes will probably make at least $600m-$700m, which is also most likely for The Final Reckoning. And I hope Elio can gross $600m instead of merely $500m, but it would have to do well both domestically and worldwide. While the global champion will almost certainly be Jurassic World: Rebirth, unless something else is unexpectedly great and we get another Top Gun: Maverick/ Barbie/Inside Out 2-style surprise, it’s interesting how all of the other franchise films I’ve listed and ranked could all make about the same amount globally, so I’m intrigued to see how it all plays out, and which films/ franchises/genres will reign supreme by the end of the summer. But right now, Jurassic World: Rebirth being the most likely champion both domestically and worldwide seems to be the only prediction we can all agree on. I look forward to re-reading this ranking at the end of the summer and being amused by it.
Yes Ryan, be loud and proud cousin, same with Lisa. Now, I don’t want to offend anyone since I haven’t been formally diagnosed (for some reason autism screenings for adults is one of the few things the Canadian Healthcare system doesn’t pay for - so if any of yall have 2000 extra bucks kicking around I’ll take it since I sure as hell don’t - but when I received my OCD diagnosis my screener said there were giant red flags that I was on the spectrum and my OCD therapist has basically been telling me without telling my I’m neurodivergent since she can’t formally diagnose me “I’m not certain pacing around the house listening to your headphones is a compulsion. Neurodiverse people do different things to calm themselves down.”). And if you’ve been diagnosed with OCD you’re 4 times more likely to be on th spectrum. I don’t think it’s a coincidence we all ended up in the same online space. It’s dark times and we all got to stick together.
You cats aren’t going to like this but (surprisingly) I have a contrarian take and think Rise is the best of the sequel trilogy. My daughter watched it lots of times, sticking her hand out when Rey does at the screen. Whenever she saw Star Wars for years after she was like “Rey! It’s Rey!”. Personally, I actually think that the Luke scene in Rise fulfills the promise of The Last Jedi’s arc: “I was wrong. It was fear that kept me here.” I literally did the Leo and pointed at the screen saying “fuck yes!” That’s the Luke Skywalker I know. And he has to say it explicitly because these are morality plays for kids everyone. You can’t end his redemption arc with a vague, nebulous finale where he literally phones in his last battle and dies from concentrating too much. You need to see him lift the X-Wing out of the water thereby becoming the new Yoda and fulfilling the arc Ruin laid out and failed to capitalize on because he’s not a director of Space Operas. He’s a hipster that doesn’t understand courage and falls into a gray morality because he’s thinks bothsideism is admirable. No, you’re just afraid to take a stand one way or the other.
I *half* agree with you about the Luke scene. I like his "I was wrong, obviously!" retort and even the whole “a Jedi weapon deserves more respect" is delivered in Hamill's classic good-natured douchery. But then the scene gets into "We knew you were a Palpatine, I trained Leia and Leia had a randomly explicit plot-convenient vision" and other nonsense that is totally "ladies need training to be Jedis" fan service and just drains the life out of the sequence. Alas.
Oof, reading that Asperger’s article just made me think everything old is new again. RFK drawing pages from the same play book. If that old bitch thinks he’s so fit he should challenge me and we’ll see how superior he really is to the neurodivergent man. Although it wouldn’t be fair since I’m not certain RFK can use the toilet unassisted. “I was wondering what would break first. Your spirit, or your body!”
Okay, here’s my boring prediction for the highest-grossing movies of the summer domestically.
1. Jurassic World: Rebirth ($350m-$400m): I think this entry will make about as much as the last one, or only a little less. This franchise has been pretty consistent for the last two movies.
2. The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($325m-$350m): If this is a good, fun, feel-good MCU movie that works for audiences who haven’t seen any of the prior Fantastic Four movies, then it could join a lot of MCU films that have made around this domestic total (Guardians of the Galaxy 1, Spider-Man Homecoming, Thor: Ragnarok and Love and Thunder).
3. Superman ($325m-$350m): Speaking of that other James Gunn superhero franchise starter, this Superman reboot could make a little more than Man of Steel due to being a more fun, rewatchable adventure. And we know from Top Gun: Maverick and Barbie that being a fun summer movie helps rewatchability.
4. Lilo and Stitch ($300m-$325m): I can see this remake making about as much as the remakes for The Little Mermaid and Aladdin, especially if it has a similar Memorial Day opening weekend.
5. How to Train Your Dragon ($250m-$300m): As for the other remake of a DuBlois/ Sanders-directed movie, I don’t think it will be quite as popular, but curiosity will still help it make more than all of the three animated films.
6. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning ($220m-$240m): I predict this entry will probably make a little more than Fallout, but not that much higher, as it’ll follow a similar box office trajectory.
7. Thunderbolts ($210m-$240m): After this film likely opens to about $80m, it’ll hopefully have good legs for a Multiverse Saga MCU film, since it has three weeks before there’s any other PG-13 action movie in the marketplace.
And those are my rough range predictions for the expected big heavy hitters, and while I don’t know about the rest, I hope the summer’s two biggest original movies, Elio and F1, can amass $50m+ opening weekends and then leg out to at least $150m domestically, assuming they’re good and crowd-pleasing. Worldwide, I predict Jurassic World: Rebirth will make at least $800m-$900m, and anything more than that will depend on how China feels about playing American exports. If The Fantastic Four: First Steps is good, it could make $700m-$800m, and so could Superman, but both films could settle for $600-$700m, which would at least be better than Thunderbolts, as it will likely end up with $500m-$600m. Both of the live-action remakes will probably make at least $600m-$700m, which is also most likely for The Final Reckoning. And I hope Elio can gross $600m instead of merely $500m, but it would have to do well both domestically and worldwide. While the global champion will almost certainly be Jurassic World: Rebirth, unless something else is unexpectedly great and we get another Top Gun: Maverick/ Barbie/Inside Out 2-style surprise, it’s interesting how all of the other franchise films I’ve listed and ranked could all make about the same amount globally, so I’m intrigued to see how it all plays out, and which films/ franchises/genres will reign supreme by the end of the summer. But right now, Jurassic World: Rebirth being the most likely champion both domestically and worldwide seems to be the only prediction we can all agree on. I look forward to re-reading this ranking at the end of the summer and being amused by it.
Yes Ryan, be loud and proud cousin, same with Lisa. Now, I don’t want to offend anyone since I haven’t been formally diagnosed (for some reason autism screenings for adults is one of the few things the Canadian Healthcare system doesn’t pay for - so if any of yall have 2000 extra bucks kicking around I’ll take it since I sure as hell don’t - but when I received my OCD diagnosis my screener said there were giant red flags that I was on the spectrum and my OCD therapist has basically been telling me without telling my I’m neurodivergent since she can’t formally diagnose me “I’m not certain pacing around the house listening to your headphones is a compulsion. Neurodiverse people do different things to calm themselves down.”). And if you’ve been diagnosed with OCD you’re 4 times more likely to be on th spectrum. I don’t think it’s a coincidence we all ended up in the same online space. It’s dark times and we all got to stick together.
You cats aren’t going to like this but (surprisingly) I have a contrarian take and think Rise is the best of the sequel trilogy. My daughter watched it lots of times, sticking her hand out when Rey does at the screen. Whenever she saw Star Wars for years after she was like “Rey! It’s Rey!”. Personally, I actually think that the Luke scene in Rise fulfills the promise of The Last Jedi’s arc: “I was wrong. It was fear that kept me here.” I literally did the Leo and pointed at the screen saying “fuck yes!” That’s the Luke Skywalker I know. And he has to say it explicitly because these are morality plays for kids everyone. You can’t end his redemption arc with a vague, nebulous finale where he literally phones in his last battle and dies from concentrating too much. You need to see him lift the X-Wing out of the water thereby becoming the new Yoda and fulfilling the arc Ruin laid out and failed to capitalize on because he’s not a director of Space Operas. He’s a hipster that doesn’t understand courage and falls into a gray morality because he’s thinks bothsideism is admirable. No, you’re just afraid to take a stand one way or the other.
I *half* agree with you about the Luke scene. I like his "I was wrong, obviously!" retort and even the whole “a Jedi weapon deserves more respect" is delivered in Hamill's classic good-natured douchery. But then the scene gets into "We knew you were a Palpatine, I trained Leia and Leia had a randomly explicit plot-convenient vision" and other nonsense that is totally "ladies need training to be Jedis" fan service and just drains the life out of the sequence. Alas.
Touché
Oof, reading that Asperger’s article just made me think everything old is new again. RFK drawing pages from the same play book. If that old bitch thinks he’s so fit he should challenge me and we’ll see how superior he really is to the neurodivergent man. Although it wouldn’t be fair since I’m not certain RFK can use the toilet unassisted. “I was wondering what would break first. Your spirit, or your body!”